Aaron Rodgers New Contract Sends Packers, Broncos Odds In Opposite Directions

Written By Stephen Andress on March 8, 2022
aaron rodgers

So much for all the drama. NFL Insider Ian Rapoport reported Tuesday that Aaron Rodgers will return to Green Bay after agreeing to a new long-term contract. Rodgers confirmed he would play for Green Bay in 2022 but denied signing a long-term extension.

The news will have significant ramifications on Super Bowl futures and NFL derivatives, in particular for the team many speculated Rodgers could be moving to – the Denver Broncos.

“The Packers and MVP QB Aaron Rodgers have agreed to terms on a 4-year, $200M deal that makes him the highest paid player in NFL history,” Rapoport tweeted. “He gets a whopping $153M guaranteed and his cap number goes down. A monstrous commitment by GB for years to come.”

Below we break down the fallout for each team’s futures. Click on the odds to bet now.

Green Bay Packers Futures

The Packers opened at +1200 at DraftKings Sportsbook to win the Super Bowl on Jan 24. Those odds are already shortening. In a matter of minutes, the best price on the Packers was +1400 at BetMGM but several legal U.S. sportsbooks shortened to +900 or +1000 with Rodgers definitely returning to Green Bay now, along with star wide receiver Davante Adams getting the franchise tag.

The Packers will now also be heavy favorites again in the NFC North, with odds shifting from around -150 or -160 across operators to as short as -225 at DK. That -225 price implies a 69% chance of winning the division.

Green Bay lost in a wintry home playoff game to the San Francisco 49ers this past season, despite the Niners failing to score an offensive touchdown. A strong pass rush combine with snow and wind made it difficult for Rodgers to move the ball downfield following an opening-drive touchdown.

Denver Broncos Futures

The Broncos 2o23 Super Bowl odds opened at +3500 at DraftKings and shortened to +2500 with speculation abound that Aaron Rodgers may join his former offensive coordinator and new Denver head coach Nathaniel Hackett in Mile High. With the NFL’s MVP staying put, the Broncos’ futures will most certainly get longer, as Denver has no clear path to consistent quarterback play in 2022.

It would not be surprising if Denver’s Super Bowl odds get as long as +5000 at this point, a number that was posted for this team last season before the draft day drama began to unfold with Aaron Rodgers and Adam Schefter’s report that the QB did not want to play another down in Green Bay.

So much for that.

UPDATE: The Seahawks are trading quarterback Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos. So much for Denver’s Super Bowl futures tanking! The Broncos immediately moved anywhere between +900 and +1400 with the blockbuster trade that will also send QB Drew Lock to Seattle.

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Stephen Andress

Stephen Andress joined Catena Media as Managing Editor of TheLines.com in March 2021. He began his career as a sports anchor and reporter in Eugene, OR before moving to Louisville, KY. There he covered the Kentucky Derby, Sugar Bowl and three consecutive Final Fours. Stephen later won an Emmy award while working for the Indianapolis Colts. More recently, he produced content for the PGA TOUR and multiple fantasy football and sports betting websites. Nothing has excited him more in his career than seeing legalized sports betting in the United States and the opportunity to share his knowledge and enthusiasm for it. His hobbies include kicking his high school friends' butts in fantasy football, Japanese whisky and Kentucky bourbon, golf outrights and supporting RIP Medical Debt, a charity which works to wipe out medical bills for those who have been unable to cover the cost of getting sick.

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