49ers vs. Dolphins: NFL Betting Preview – October 11, 2020

Posted By Staff on October 9, 2020

The 1-3 Miami Dolphins are nine-point underdogs heading into their matchup on Sunday, October 11 against the 2-2 San Francisco 49ers. The game’s over/under is set at 51.5.

The betting insights in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of October 8, 2020, 6:41 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings.com.

Betting Information

Injury Report

49ers:
WR Deebo Samuel: Questionable (Illness); CB Dontae Johnson: Questionable (Groin); CB Richard Sherman: Out (Leg); TE Jordan Reed: Out (Knee); DE Ziggy Ansah: Out (Biceps); WR Tavon Austin: Out (Knee); QB Jimmy Garoppolo: Questionable (Ankle); CB K’Waun Williams: Doubtful (Knee); DE Dee Ford: Out (Back); C Weston Richburg: Out (Kneecap); RB Tevin Coleman: Out (Knee); OLB Mark Nzeocha: Out (Quadriceps); RB Raheem Mostert: Questionable (MCL); DE Ronald Blair III: Out (Knee); DT Solomon Thomas: Out (Knee (ACL); CB Ahkello Witherspoon: Questionable (Hamstring); WR Chris Thompson: Out (Undisclosed); DT Jullian Taylor: Out (Knee); WR Richie James Jr.: Out (Hamstring); CB Emmanuel Moseley: Questionable (Concussion); DE Nick Bosa: Out (ACL); OLB Dre Greenlaw: Questionable (Quadriceps); WR Jalen Hurd: Out (Knee); TE Chase Harrell: Out (Suspension)

Dolphins:
LB Vince Biegel: Out (Torn Achilles); WR Antonio Callaway: Out (Suspension); DE Jonathan Ledbetter: Out (Ankle); DE Shaq Lawson: Questionable (Shoulder); TE Durham Smythe: Questionable (Knee); OT Austin Jackson: Questionable (Foot); WR Malcolm Perry: Questionable (Illness)

Total Facts

  • San Francisco and its opponents have combined to score more than 51.5 in zero games.
  • Miami’s contests have gone over 51.5 points on two out of four occasions.
  • The two teams average a combined 50 points per contest– 1.5 fewer than the total for this matchup.
  • The over/under for this game is 9.7 points higher than the two teams’ opponents scoring average (41.8).
  • The over/under in this game is seven points higher than the average total in 49ers games this season (44.5).
  • Games involving the Dolphins this year have averaged 47.2 points per game, a 4.3-point differential when compared to this over/under.
  • The 49ers are the 11th-highest scoring team in the NFL this year. The Dolphins have scored the 24th-most points.
  • Miami has allowed the 12th-fewest points in NFL play this season, while San Francisco has given up the third-fewest.
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49ers Betting Insights

  • San Francisco has played in two games this year that went over the point total.
  • San Francisco has a 2-2 record against the spread.

Dolphins Betting Insights

  • Miami has compiled a 2-2 record against the spread this season.
  • Three of Miami’s four games this year have not gone over the point total.

When the 49ers Have the Ball

  • The 49ers average points scored this season (26.8) and the Dolphins points allowed (24) are within 2.8 points of each other.
  • In games where San Francisco score at least 26.8 points this season, they are 2-0 overall and 2-0 against the spread.
  • When the Miami defense allows 24 points or fewer this year, the Dolphins have a 1-1 overall record and a 1-1 record against the spread.
  • The Dolphins defense has allowed an average of 410 yards per game this season– 19.5 yards more than the 390.5 the 49ers offense has averaged.
  • The 49ers pick up 5.9 yards per play while the Dolphins allow 6.6 per play.
  • When San Francisco hits their average yard output this season, they are 1-1 against the spread and 1-1 overall.
  • When the Miami defense allows less than their season average for total yards this season, they are 1-1 against the spread and 1-1 overall.
  • The 49ers average 128.5 yards per game on the ground this season– four yards more than the Dolphins have allowed to opposing rushing attacks (124.5).
  • When San Francisco rushes for at least 128.5 yards, they are 1-0 overall and 1-0 against the spread.
  • This season, when the Miami defense allows less than 124.5 yards on the ground, they are 2-1 against the spread and 1-2 overall.
  • This season, the Dolphins force 1.2 turnovers per game compared. The 49ers average one turnover per game.
  • When San Francisco turns the football over one time or fewer this season, they are 2-1 overall and 2-1 against the spread.
  • Miami’s record this season when they force more than 1.2 turnovers: 1-0 ATS, 1-0 overall.

When the Dolphins Have the Ball

  • The Dolphins average 23.2 points per game. The 49ers surrender 17.8 per game.
  • When Miami puts up at least 23.2 points, they are 2-0 against the spread and 1-1 overall.
  • San Francisco has a 2-0 record against the spread and a 2-0 record overall in games when it gives up 26.8 points or less.
  • The Dolphins average 52.2 more yards per game (347), than the 49ers give up per matchup (294.8).
  • The Dolphins average 5.4 yards per play, while the 49ers give up 4.8 per play.
  • In games San Francisco keeps its opponents to 294.8 or fewer yards, it has a 2-1 record ATS and a 2-1 record overall.
  • The Dolphins rush for 106.8 yards per game– four fewer yards per game than the 110.8 the 49ers allow per outing.
  • When Miami rushes for at least 106.8 yards, it compiled a 1-0 ATS record and a 1-0 overall record.
  • This season, San Francisco is 2-1 against the spread and 2-1 overall when holding opponents to no more than 110.8 yards on the ground.
  • This year, the Dolphins turn the ball over 1.2 times per game, equal to the 1.2 the 49ers force on average.
  • Miami has a 2-0 record against the spread and a 1-1 record overall when it turns the ball over 1.2 times or less.
  • When it forces 1.2 or more turnovers, San Francisco has a 1-0 record against the spread and a 1-0 record overall.

49ers Players to Watch

  • Jerick McKinnon has taken 34 attempts for 193 rushing yards (48.3 yards per game) and three touchdowns in four games. He’s also caught 13 passes for 102 yards (25.5 receiving yards per game) with one touchdown through the air.
  • In two games, Raheem Mostert has run for 148 yards on 23 carries (74 ypg) and a touchdown. Mostert also makes an impact in the passing game, catching six passes to lead the team with 110 (55 ypg) while scoring one touchdown.
  • George Kittle has caught 19 passes for 227 yards and one touchdown in two games. He has been targeted 20 times and averages 113.5 yards per game.
  • Kendrick Bourne has added with 197 yards on 13 catches. He has been targeted 22 times and averages 49.3 receiving yards per game.
  • Kerry Hyder has registered a team-high 2.5 sacks, while adding two TFL and 17 tackles over four games.
  • In four games, Fred Warner has racked up 34 tackles and one interception.
  • Jaquiski Tartt has one interception, 13 tackles, one TFL, and three passes defended four in games this season.

Dolphins Players to Watch

  • Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown for 994 yards, four touchdowns, and five picks while completing 69% of his passes in four games this year (248.5 yards per game). He’s also carried the ball 21 times for 115 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 28.8 yards per game.
  • Myles Gaskin has rushed for 192 yards (48 yards per game) in four games. He has added 18 catches for 113 yards (28.3 receiving yards per game).
  • DeVante Parker has been targeted 29 times for 24 receptions and 279 yards (69.8 ypg) while scoring one touchdown in four games this season.
  • Mike Gesicki has 13 catches for 190 yards and two touchdowns over four games this year. He has been targeted 22 times and averages 47.5 receiving yards per game.
  • Emmanuel Ogbah has registered two sacks, two TFL, and 10 tackles over four games.
  • Jerome Baker has racked up 32 tackles, two TFL, and one sack this season.

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