5 Potential PGA TOUR Golf Sleeper Picks: 2022 3M Open

Written By John Haslbauer on July 19, 2022
3m Open picks

The 2022 3M Open is not the major hangover cure we asked for, but it’s the one we’ve got as the PGA TOUR heads to TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. Withdrawals have been hitting the news wire early this week, but a clear big three remains at the top of the board between Tony Finau, Sungjae Im and Hideki Matsuyama, who each pair a solid 2022 season with proven results in the Twin Cities. While they may factor into my 3M Open picks, we first take a look at potential longshot plays.

Last year, Cameron Champ taught us that literally anyone can catch a hot putter on these straightforward greens. He led the field in SG: P for the event despite entering in the bottom 10 of the PGA TOUR for the 2021 season. With oversized greens and the surrounding green-side complexes not offering much of a challenge, it’s a great week to hone in on the top ball-strikers.

Below we’ll look at potential 3M Open picks and dig in deep as we look for sleepers in this week’s golf oddsClick on the odds to bet now. 

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COURSE INTRODUCTION

TPC Twin Cities measures slightly above average in distance by PGA TOUR standards at 7,431 yards. So while control off the tee is rewarded, the longer hitters will have an advantage on a very open course layout, so long as they can avoid the many water hazards in play on 15 holes.

Past champions of Matthew Wolff, Michael Thompson and Cameron Champ tell a bit of an inconsistent story. But, if we look at contenders over the years, the trend seems more clear for top-tier ball strikers with plus-distance finding the most success.

Putting is always a volatile stat. But, the line between skilled and deficient putters gets blurred considerably at TPC Twin Cities, as ranks bottom three in putting difficulty all three years it has hosted. That means a great buy-low opportunity for discounted ball strikers whose putting woes on recent, trickier greens have relegated them to the longshot range on this week’s board.

For a deeper dive into the course, read my 3M Open preview. Without any further delay, let’s get to our 3M Open picks with a focus on longshots and sleepers for your DFS lineups.

POTENTIAL SLEEPER 3M OPEN PICKS

From a golf betting perspective, the 3M Open is one of your most viable opportunities to cash some longshot outrights. Each of the first three winners of this event have closed at 125-to-1 odds or longer. That makes sense in an easy scoring putting contest. With these greens offering little resistance, we can find top-tier ball strikers available down the board who can position themselves well to contend if they simply keep the ball away from the water off the tee.

In terms of DFS, without any must-play names at the very top of the board, and the absence of much depth in the $6K range, we should naturally see more balanced builds from a lineup construction standpoint. In a week with so much volatility between the penalty strokes looming and emphasis on making a high volume of putts, it’s a good week to go contrarian on ownership, as the $7K range has a wide pool of viable players.

Below, find my favorite value leverage plays and longshots for the 2022 3M Open. Stats pulled across Last 36 Rounds unless otherwise noted.

Lucas Glover (, $7,400)

The first man to make it onto my betting card this week was Lucas Glover. While his outright price has corrected down to 100-to-1 odds on some books, that still seems a palatable number on a course that has rewarded the best ball-strikers.

A winner on another Bentgrass, easy scoring, TPC layout at last year’s John Deere Classic, the 42-year-old has shown us he’s still got plenty left in the tank. Among this week’s field, Glover ranks top 25 across the key stats of Opportunities Gained, SG: APP, SG: OTT, Par-5 Scoring, Comp Course History, Prox: 200+ and Fairways Gained. That amounts to No. 7 overall in my model. He’s paid off that course profile fit already with a T7 finish in his 3M Open debut in 2019.

The concern of his putter never fully disappears. But if you’re looking to pick a spot to get your exposure to him, it should come at a course like TPC Twin Cities. Glover has gained strokes putting in two of his last four starts leading in, and was able to figure out these greens in 2019 when he gained over 6 strokes putting. If he can manage to remain level on the greens this week, he possesses the elite ball striking needed to contend.

Doug Ghim (, $7,300)

For all the same reasons I like Lucas Glover’s fit at TPC Twin Cities, I like Doug Ghim’s even more. Another class ball-striker whose putter has kept him from contending more regularly, Ghim’s flatstick has also shown newfound life. He has gained strokes putting in three of his last four measured events.

The formula to find success at TPC Twin Cities is to avoid hazards off the tee and lean on mid-to-long irons to generate as many birdie opportunities as possible. That suits Ghim’s game, as he joins Tony Finau, Sungjae Im and Brendan Steele as the only four players in this field to rate top 20 in Opportunities Gained, SG: APP and SG: OTT. He’s also shown glimpses of how his game translates on a TPC course that rewards aggressive play and avoiding the ample water hazards by contending at THE PLAYERS in each of his first two career appearances. He logged an impressive T6 earlier this season.

In his 2020 3M open debut, he gained across all four strokes gained categories en route to a solid T18 showing. Leading into this event, he’s begun to show form with top 20 finishes at the Scottish Open and Canadian Open over his last five starts. Ghim ranks No. 14 in my model this week and posseses great top-20 upside for the low price.

Joohyung Kim (+4000, $7,300)

The legend of Tom Kim continues to grow. He made it through the cut at last week’s British Open, ultimately finished T47 and climbed inside the OWGR top 40. You can find Kim priced as short as 28-to-1 in the outright market this week, so the low-$7K price sticks out like a sore thumb in this field. That will make Kim one of the highest owned on the DFS slate. His world ranking puts him ahead of players like Adam Hadwin, Maverick McNealy, JT Poston and Sahith Theegala, each priced over $1.5K higher. So although there’s no such thing as a free square in golf DFS, the value looks clear.

Kim has made five starts on the PGA TOUR this year, getting through the cut all but once (PGA Championship). He posted three top-25 finishes over that span, including a T3 at the Scottish Open against one of the strongest fields of the season. The 20-year-old already has three professional international wins over the last three years and will be in great position to build on that total against a very beatable field this week.

Lee Hodges (, $7,000)

Lee Hodges should have considerably less hype around him this week and should act as a nice complementary leverage play. Hodges will make his 3M Open debut but has shown encouraging signs on comp courses, finishing T9 at the Honda Classic and top 30 at the Travelers Championship and Shriners Open. All this comes in his rookie season. He profiles as a consistent iron player, now gaining strokes on approach and ball striking in each of his last five starts. Over his last 36 rounds, Hodges ranks No. 25 in SG: APP. He thrives especially from 175+ yards — where a majority of approaches at TPC Twin Cities funnel — ranking No. 14 in Prox 175+.

A winner on the Korn Ferry Tour last season, Hodges played himself into contention already with multiple top-10 finishes in his rookie season. I’ll look his way in the top-20 or top-40 placement markets this week. His ability to pop with the putter makes him an appealing low-owned GPP option in DFS.

Brice Garnett (, $6,900)

If you didn’t know before, you know now. You don’t fade Garnett in Minnesota. Death, taxes, and The Big Ticket (a nickname he only earns this one week each year) in the Twin Cities.

Brice Garnett has played this event in each of its first three years and finished inside the top-30 each time. He joins Tony Finau as the only two players in this field to do so. Garnett is known for two things on the PGA TOUR — accurate driving and a propensity to get scorching hot with the putter — and that formula works well at a birdie-fest like the 3M Open.

Garnett has two top-20 finishes over his last six starts. They just happen to be sandwiched with four missed cuts in between. But, a T16 at last week’s Barracuda Championship — which demands aggressive birdie-making in the stableford format — rates as an encouraging sign this week. The Big Ticket has never entered this event in sensational form anyway, so I’m comfortable blindly chasing a course history narrative this week, especially at this discounted price. Anything is possible!

Best of luck making your 3M Open picks.

John Haslbauer Avatar
Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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