2024 3M Open Preview: Everything To Know About TPC Twin Cities

The 3M Open returns to Minnesota with another 2024 PGA TOUR contest slated for TPC Twin Cities. Find longer golf odds at the best betting sites to increase your potential 3M Open payouts. Tony Finau, Sam Burns, and Sahith Theegala are the favorites for this year’s 3M Open.

We turn the page from the Open to another Open, as the PGA TOUR schedule resumes in the Twin Cities. 2024 3M Open odds require handicapping for a familiar course. TPC Twin Cities again plays host to this relatively new event (since 2019).

It will be far less “open” on the course itself than bettors have grown used to of late. The links swing overseas offered back-to-back events exposed to the elements in sloping, firm, and fast fairway conditions. Now, we’ll see a return to the familiar confines of parkland golf. That means more grown-out rough, fairways lined with trees, and ample water hazards. It also means a reward for control off the tee again and creates an appealing buy-low opportunity for any players that showed us links golf may not be their cup of tea.

Let’s run through the key facts and info about TPC Twin Cities. We’ll see if we can cook up a winning outright ticket from 2024 3M Open odds.

3M OPEN ODDS: THE FAVORITES

To compare odds across golf betting sites, scroll to the bottom of this post.

THE FIELD AT A GLANCE

One can hardly expect the masses from the Open Championship to make the journey to Minnesota for this fledgling event. The 3M Open lacks the same prestige, historical significance, purse, or FedEx Cup points. However, just two events remain on the PGA TOUR schedule before the playoffs begin. Most top players who made the trip did so out of desperation. They’re jockeying for position to secure a place in the top 70 of the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

With the playoffs tightening from the traditional 125 to 70, the depth of the 3M Open field has made a notable improvement over the last two years. With the playoff bubble in mind, 24 players in this field fall between No. 55 and No. 85 in the current FedEx Cup Standings.

There is a clear line between the top players and the rest of the pack this week. Five OWGR top-30 players play this week: Sahith Theegala, Tony Finau, Keegan Bradley, Akshay Bhatia, and Sam Burns. A total of 16 players from last week’s British Open field made the 10-hour flight from Liverpool to Minnesota. That list also includes Billy Horschel and Justin Rose, who look to have regained form at Troon.

Tony Finau parlayed a hot final round at the British Open in 2022 into a 3M Open victory. Conversely, Lee Hodges flew back to Minnesota after an early exit from Hoylake prior to his 2023 3M Open victory. Essentially, don’t count out the top players in this field based on jet lag or emotional post-major hangover.

Hodges returns to defend after dominating at TPC Twin Cities for his maiden PGA TOUR victory this time last year. Cameron Champ and Tony Finau also join as past champions.

INTRODUCTION TO TPC TWIN CITIES

TPC Twin Cities is your quintessential TPC layout. It features a steady mix of birdie opportunities on short par 4s, reachable par 5s, and stadium-style par 3s to keep the crowds engaged. Water hazards threaten throughout, so Bogey Avoidance and control OTT will be at more of a premium here. As a 7,431-yard par-71, length is an advantage, and its oversized greens render SG: ARG almost completely inconsequential.

The 3M Open was added to the TOUR rotation in 2019. TPC Twin Cities went through a renovation project following the 2018 3M Championship to adapt the course and present more of a challenge to modern TOUR players. That project primarily consisted of pushing tees back. It added nearly 300 yards in length and expanded water hazards to pose more of a persistent threat.

As a result, we’ve seen this new layout reward the best total drivers who control their misses, avoid hazards, and position themselves to attack pins on large, receptive greens. Moderate winning scores of -17 and -15 in the last two years make TPC Twin Cities more than a pure birdie-fest.

Tournament founder Hollis Cavner gave a description of how he wants the 3M Open to play. “We want birdies and train wrecks, and we don’t want to be the hardest golf course on the tour,” he said.

Birdies and train wrecks are the easiest way to capture the interest of fans at large. This event, despite lacking star power in its field, has done an excellent job of producing dramatic conclusions. With the Barracuda Championship on the mind from last week, this would be the perfect venue for a Stableford scoring tournament. It’s one of the best examples of a course where a range of birdies and bogeys are both in play.

For TPC Twin Cities course specs, hole-by-hole breakdown with yardages, and past 3M Open winners with their pre-tournament odds, visit our 3M Open odds page.

COURSE HISTORY AND COURSE COMPS

Though we’ve only had a five-year sample of events to reference, course history has not proven to be predictive at all for the eventual winners (with the exception of betting favorite Tony Finau in 2022). Matthew Wolff won here in his fourth career start on the PGA TOUR. Michael Thompson finished last among those who made the cut at the 2019 3M Open before his victory in 2020. Cameron Champ missed the cut in his only prior appearance at this event. Lee Hodges did look serviceable in one prior appearance, finishing T16 in the year prior. The 3M Open has an ongoing trend of winners finishing outside the top 10 in SG: T2G. So, recent performance on the course can be overlooked if you’re able to make up for it on the greens.

Between the LIV defectors and the 3M Open’s new position on the PGA TOUR schedule immediately following the Open, plenty of players with sustained course history at this event will be absent. In fact, six of the top 20 players in terms of total strokes gained at the 3M Open – Charl Schwartzel, Wolff, Bryson DeChambeau, Louis Oosthuizen, Carlos Ortiz, and Pat Perez – now reside on the LIV Tour. 

Tony Finau

Finau broke a streak of champions randomly popping at the 3M Open, despite their lack of prior results at the event. Understandably, Finau’s game translates to any golf course, and it’s not dependent on an exact course fit. A 3M Open resume that includes finishes of T23, T3, T28, 1, and T7 is an encouraging baseline for Finau, and he’ll be one of the presumptive favorites this week despite an uninspiring showing at Royal Troon last week.

A wise man once said to never fade Garnett in Minnesota. Brice “The Big Ticket” Garnett has been as consistent as they come at the 3M Open with finishes of T23, T26, T16, T31, and T53 over his first five appearances at this event.

Just five players made it through each cut at the 3M Open (min. three appearances): Tony Finau, Brice Garnett, JT Poston, Patrick Rodgers, and Aaron Baddeley. There are 13 players who have recorded multiple top-25 finishes in this event: Finau, Poston, Garnett, Lee Hodges, Keith Micthell, Tom Hoge, Cam Davis, Scott Piercy, Cameron Champ, Callum Tarren, JT Poston, Adam Hadwin, and Emiliano Grillo.

Players to record a top-15 finish in their one prior debut include Zac Blair, Billy Horschel, and Sam Stevens. Notables with poor history across multiple appearances at the 3M Open include Sahith Theegala, Erik van Rooyen, and Nate Lashley.

The top-10 players in Course History at TPC Twin Cities are Tony Finau, Lee Hodges, Callum Tarren, Sam Stevens, Emiliano Grillo, Kevin Streelman, JT Poston, Jhonattan Vegas, Adam Hadwin, and Brice Garnett.

Course Comps

PGA National, host of the Cognizant Classic, stands out to me as the top comp course from both the eye test and overlapping leaderboards. Both PGA National and TPC Twin Cities place an emphasis on total driving with a true penalty for wayward drives thanks to persistent water hazards. Michael Thompson has two career PGA TOUR wins, coming at the 3M Open and Cognizant Classic. Sungjae Im is a past Cognizant Classic champion with a T2 at the 3M Open. Even 2022 Cognizant Classic champion Sepp Straka has had some success here, ranking No. 2 in SG: Ball Striking.

Though difficult to track through SG data, TPC Louisiana is also a strong comp, featuring many persistent water hazards and some strong leaderboard overlap. Six players finished top 20 in both events in 2021. Additionally, Brian Stuard was the last to win the Zurich Classic at TPC Louisiana as an individual stroke play event in 2016, and he posted a T6 finish in his 3M Open debut.

Aside from the overlapping leaderboard trend, it also makes sense that TPC Louisiana would reward a similar profile of player. Both layouts sit at 7,400 yards with water hazards throughout. That rewards an aggressive style of play to attack pins for birdies.

Detroit Golf Club, Silverado Resort, TPC Deere Run, TPC Summerlin, and TPC San Antonio all share similar scoring conditions, yielding winning scores in the high teens under par and a premium on SG: OTT. 

Combine performance across this list, and the top 10 players in Comp Course History here are Luke Clanton, Rico Hoey, Chan Kim, JT Poston, Tony Finau, Cam Davis, Adam Hadwin, Akshay Bhatia, Keegan Bradley, and Hayden Springer.

KEY STATS TO CONSIDER WITH 3M OPEN ODDS

• SG: OTT
• SG: APP
• SG: Ball Striking
• Birdies or Better Gained (Easy Scoring Conditions) / Opportunities Gained
• Par-5 Scoring
• SG: OTT (Difficult-to-hit Fairways)
• SG: Putting (Bent)
• Course & Comp Course History

2021 3M Open champion (and triple-digit longshot) Cameron Champ was bottom 10 on the PGA TOUR in SG: P on the 2021 season entering the 3M Open. He proceeded to lead the field in SG: P, gaining 8.5 strokes for the week. In 2022, Tony Finau also entered in inconsistent form on the greens, ranking No. 92 in SG: P over his last 50 rounds leading in. Last year, Lee Hodges ranked No. 8 in SG: Putting on the season and finished No. 4 in SG: Putting for the week. With oversized greens that lack nuance, TPC Twin Cities has opened the door for lesser putters to spike. It’s a week I put some of the lowest weight on short game stats. Instead, I lean all in on the top ball strikers.

From a ball-striking standpoint, I’m putting the most weight in my model on SG: OTT, isolating the players best equipped to handle the length of this course while also avoiding the constant water hazards. The top 10 in SG: OTT are Luke Clanton, Cameron Champ, Keith Mitchell, Patrick Fishburn, Rico Hoey, Kevin Yu, Alejandro Tosti, Austin Eckroat, Sam Stevens, and Kevin Dougherty. From a Total Driving standpoint, just seven players rank top 50 in both Driving Distance and Driving Accuracy: Luke Clanton, Maverick McNealy, Chan Kim, Sahith Theegala, Neal Shipley, Sam Burns, and Keegan Bradley.

Opportunities Gained

All of the contenders at the 3M Open have leaned on spike approach play. That’s nothing new for a PGA TOUR event, but with a very balanced distribution of hole ranges, I’m looking broadly at the top players in terms of SG: APP. The top 10 include Tony Finau, Keith Mitchell, Kevin Yu, Luke Clanton, Kelly Kraft, Tom Hoge, Dylan Wu, Joel Dahmen, Patton Kizzire, and Greyson Sigg.

To take a step further beyond approach play, this shapes up to be the perfect setup to lean into the Opportunities Gained stat, which identifies the players who generate the highest volume of birdie opportunities. That top 10 includes Luke Clanton, Ben Griffin, Scott Piercy, Pierceson Coody, Kelly Kraft, Patton Kizzire. Sam Ryder, Wesley Bryan, Hayden Springer, and Michael Thorbjornsen.

It may sound like a given every single week on the PGA TOUR, but in an event designed to generate birdies and train wrecks, it’s going to be crucial to find the players who are in control of their games in terms of both Birdie or Better Gained and Bogey Avoidance.  There are just 10 players who rank top 30 in both categories: Luke Clanton, Ben Griffin, Scott Piercy, Kelly Kraft, Jacob Bridgeman, Maverick McNealy, Andrew Novak, Sam Stevens, Harry Hall, and Mac Meissner.

The perfect player profile for this week should be above average in SG: OTT, SG: APP, Opportunities Gained, Bogey Avoidance, and Comp Course History. Nine players rank top 40 in each of those categories: Luke Clanton, Ben Griffin, Keith Mitchell, Tom Hoge, Chan Kim, Rico Hoey, Jhonattan Vegas, Mac Meissner, Tony Finau, and Taylor Pendrith

Correlations

Looking at the correlation charts this week, we have limited data from the four years of this event. But it is starting to tell a more consistent story. Par-3 Scoring and P4: 450-500 see a great decline in importance compared to the TOUR average. Some outlier performances from Cameron Champ and Michael Thompson have driven SG: OTT down the board in favor of SG: P. However, it’s still fair to say that trending OTT form entering this event is far more predictive than putting form.

It’s SG: APP and Par-4: 350-400 that make the biggest jump in importance at this event. That checks out, considering the number of drivable par-4s and the premium on generating birdie opportunities from these wider fairways.

Only 10 players in the field rank above average in each of the above 10 key stat categories: Luke Clanton, Rico Hoey, Ben Griffin, Andrew Novak, Mark Hubbard, Taylor Pendrith, David Skinns, Ryan Moore, Ben Kohles, and Matthew NeSmith.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Nick Dunlap

If we’re looking for a repeat version of Lee Hodges’ performance at the 2024 3M Open, Nick Dunlap is the spitting image from a statistical profile standpoint. Like Hodges, Dunlap is a reliable ball striker, consistently gaining in Driving Distance, Driving Accuracy, and SG: Approach throughout the 2024 season. A course like TPC Twin Cities, which brings water into play so often, makes dependable ball-striking a pre-requisite to keep the blow-up holes off the card. Consistent contenders like Finau, Hodges, and Grillo help illustrate that point further.

Though Dunlap has only just turned professional this year following his historic win as an amateur at The AmEx in January, he’s quickly shown to be a profile fit on courses that reward accurate ball-striking. His win at PGA West proved the 20-year-old is already comfortable hitting high-pressure shots with water hazards looming. He out-dueled Sam Burns en route to his victory. The AmEx also happens to be where Lee Hodges posted his best career finish prior to picking up his first career win at the 2023 3M Open.

Dunlap has quickly acclimated to life as a pro golfer, posting three additional top-15 finishes between the Texas Children’s Houston Open, the Memorial, and Rocket Mortgage Classic since winning the AmEx. Ranking top-30 in SG: APP, Par-5 Scoring, Birdies or Better Gained, and Driving Distance, Dunlap fits the mold of young, trending ball-strikers who have found early success at the 3M Open.

2024 3M OPEN ODDS: DFS PLAYER POOL

With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the 2024 3M Open odds as well. I’ve broken the list down by projected pricing/odds tier for DraftKings.  

UNDERDOG GOLF DRAFT RANKINGS TIERS

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Tier 1

Tony Finau

Tier 2

Sam Burns
Sahith Theegala
Keith Mitchell

Tier 3

Luke Clanton
Keegan Bradley
Maverick McNealy
Tom Hoge
Akshay Bhatia

Tier 4

Nick Dunlap
Rico Hoey
Mark Hubbard
JJ Spaun
Michael Thorbjornsen
Taylor Pendrith

Tier 5

Chan Kim
Hayden Springer
Patton Kizzire
Mac Meissner
Neal Shipley

3M OPEN ODDS: MODEL RESULTS & BREAKDOWN

2024 3M Open Model Breakdown

In my model, I’m emphasizing SG: OTT, SG: APP, Comp Course History, Opportunities Gained, and Birdies or Better Gained, followed by a more balanced mix of Par-5 Scoring, Good Drives Gained, and SG: P (Bent),

Model Favorites

Skewed a bit by a smaller sample size, I’m still not shocked to see Luke Clanton’s name atop my model. The promising amateur has flashed generational talent with his driver in the few glimpses we’ve seen of him thus far. He picked up top-10 finishes at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and John Deere Classic this past month. Those elite ball-striking skillsets should translate well at TPC Twin Cities, though he still has plenty to improve around the greens.

After Clanton, the rest of my model’s top 10 is rounded out by: Tony Finau, Keith Mitchell, Chan Kim, Jhonattan Vegas, Rico Hoey, Kevin Yu, Ben Griffin, Maverick McNealy, and Tom Hoge.

When 2024 3M Open odds release on Monday, I’ll look to target Sam Burns, Tom Hoge, Akshay Bhatia, and Nick Dunlap, depending on where the odds ultimately fall.

Check back in later this week for more updates, and best of luck navigating the 2024 3M Open odds!

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