3M Open Odds: Why Longshots Could Be In Play At TPC Twin Cities

Posted By FairwayJay on July 18, 2021 - Last Updated on July 21, 2021

The third edition if the 3M Open follows the final major of the 2021 season – the British Open. The 2021 edition drew a pretty solid field considering its position on the PGA TOUR schedule, which should create some intriguing values in 2021 3M Open odds.

World No. 1 Dustin Johnson and No. 13 Louis Oosthuizen will make their way to Minneapolis, and Oosthuizen led each of the first three rounds of The Open Championship.

No. 9 Patrick Reed was a late commitment to the 3M Open after he missed the cut overseas, and No. 14 Tony Finau completes the top-20 players in the field. Finau finished 3rd at last year’s 3M Open without fans in attendance.

Bet $1 Get $150 + Up to $1,050 Bonus
1
UP TO $1,050 FREE
New User Bonus. T&Cs Apply.
National Football Special
Bet $1, Get $150 Instantly
$50 Free Bet on Deposit
Up to $1,000 Deposit Bonus
To Claim: Click Play Now

2021 3M OPEN ODDS

Dustin Johnson was +1100 and the favorite to win last year’s event, and he withdrew after Round 1 with an injury. He is even shorter this year.
2021 3M Open Odds

Game
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
Dustin Johnson
Bet now
+750
Bet now
+750
Louis Oosthuizen
Bet now
+1200
Bet now
+1400
Tony Finau
Bet now
+1400
Bet now
+1800
Patrick Reed
Bet now
+1600
Bet now
+1800
Cameron Tringale
Bet now
+2500
Bet now
+3000
Brian Harman
Bet now
+2500
Bet now
+2500
Robert MacIntyre
Bet now
+2800
Bet now
+3500
Emiliano Grillo
Bet now
+3500
Bet now
+4000
Sergio Garcia
Bet now
+3500
Bet now
+3000
Matthew Wolff
Bet now
+3500
Bet now
+3300
Bubba Watson
Bet now
+3500
Bet now
+3000
Cameron Davis
Bet now
+4000
Bet now
+3500
Keegan Bradley
Bet now
+4000
Bet now
+5000
Hank Lebioda
Bet now
+6000
Bet now
+5000
Seamus Power
Bet now
+4500
Bet now
OTB
Rickie Fowler
Bet now
+5000
Bet now
+5000
Maverick McNealy
Bet now
+5000
Bet now
+5000
Lucas Herbert
Bet now
+5000
Bet now
+5000
Patrick Rodgers
Bet now
+5000
Bet now
+6600
Gary Woodland
Bet now
+5000
Bet now
+5000
View the entire odds board for every golfer at DraftKings SportsbookFanDuel Sportsbook and BetMGM.

Golfers to watch

Doug Ghim (+4800 FanDuel): Ghim ranks highly in this field in birdie average, and the 25-year-old is accurate and strong with his irons ranking top-11 on Tour in greens hit. He also ranks No. 1 in greens in regulation gained and fairways gained over his last 36 rounds. The bookmakers respect his play and potential despite ranking outside the top 200 in the world golf rankings. Over his last 36 rounds, he’s top-6 in approach, ball striking and tee-to-green, but his poor putting and short game is holding back stronger finishes. Over the past year, one of his three best putting rounds came at TPC Twin Cities, and Ghim finished T18 last year at 13-under par. Ghim has shot double-digits under par in his last two events on scoring courses, and a better week of putting puts him in the mix with +500 odds for a top-10 finish also worth a bet.

Charl Schwartzel (+7000 FanDuel): Schwartzel finished T3 in his only 3M appearance last year. Strokes Gained Approach is of greater significance this week per data golf stat profiles, and over his last 24 rounds, the South African ranks top-20 in approach, ball striking, tee-to-green, off-the-tee and total. Going back to May, he had three straight events of at least 4.5 strokes gained on approach, and his par 4 efficiency numbers on holes of 450 yards or less rank among the best in this field at TPC Twin Cities. In last year’s 3M event, Schwartzel’s stats were strong including a better putter as he gained 4-strokes putting and better than 10 strokes total. His pure ball striking and solid tee-to-green game is of more importance with additional water and hazards this week.

Patrick Rodgers (+8000 DraftKings): Rodgers goes out in the first group Thursday morning, and he shot 66 to start last year’s event before a 70, 70 weekend dropped him to T32. A better finish is expected this year, as he comes in with confidence off a T5 finish last week at Barbasol shooting 19-under par. Rogers is a big hitter who has gained strokes off-the-tee in six straight events, and gained more than 6 strokes putting on the field last week and at the U.S. Open. The concern is Rodgers approach stats are his weakest metric over his last 36 rounds, but he has gained on the field in that category in three of his last four events. Rodgers is most comfortable on bentgrass greens, and he should set himself up for more birdie chances this week.

Erik van Rooyen (+13000 DraftKings): Here’s another South African with nearly twice the odds of Schwartzel. And van Rooyen admits he’s played TPC Twin Cities many, many times having played college golf at the University of Minnesota. His stats are not as strong having missed many cuts since May, but he’s still in the top third of the field in a number of strokes gained stats over his last 36 rounds and did finish top-10 at the Palmetto Championship. Counting on a familiar course to ignite better play.

Brice Garnett (+20000 DraftKings): Garnett is a bomb that makes more sense for a top 10 (+1600) or top 20 (+1100) finish. He’s finished top T26 and T23 in the two 3M Open events, and his par 4 efficiency numbers are top-25 across all ranges from 350-500 yards. He also has top 20 stats over the course on approach, ball striking, off-the-tee and tee-to-green (T6). Garnett has had some top finishes on scoring courses, and was T5 at the Travelers the end of June when his putter was red hot gaining better than 13 strokes on the field. Not playing well in July, but this course and event fits as he’s shown in two starts.

TOP PLAYERS IN THE 3M OPEN

  • Dustin Johnson (1)
  • Patrick Reed (9)
  • Louis Oosthuizen (13)
  • Tony Finau (17)
  • Jason Kokrak (24)
  • Matthew Wolff (37)
  • Stewart Cink (39)
  • Brian Harman (46)
  • Sergio Garcia (51)
  • Bubba Watson (54)

Also Rickie Fowler, Gary Woodland, Keegan Bradley and recent Rocket Mortgage Classic winner Cam Davis will be firing for more birdies at TPC Twin Cities.

Last year’s top-10 finishers returning in 2021

  • Michael Thompson (1)
  • Adam Long (2)
  • Emiliano Grill0 (T3)
  • Charles Howell III (T3)
  • Tony Finau (T3)
  • Cameron Tringale (T3)
  • Richy Werenski (T3)
  • Robby Shelton (T3)

COURSE AND TOURNAMENT INFO

  • Course: TPC Twin Cities
  • Location: Blaine, MN
  • Date: July 22-25, 2021
  • Par: 71 / Yardage 7,431
  • Purse: $6.6 Million / Winner $1.15M
  • Fairways/Rough: Bentgrass with Bluegrass/Fescue at 3”
  • Greens: Bentgrass
  • TV: Golf Channel (Thurs-Sun) and CBS (Thurs-Sun 3-6pm ET)
  • Twitter: @3MOpen

The TPC Twin Cities opened in 2000 and was the host course for the 3M Open on the Champions Tour. The Arnold Palmer design was renovated in 2018 and included narrowing of fairways, addition of bunkers (72 total) and repositioning of tee complexes. There are 27 water hazards on the course with 10 coming into play off the tee.

TPC Twin Cities is one of the easiest courses to drive, and in the inaugural event the average distance was well over 300 yards with average fairways hit at 65%. So players can attack the average size greens, and the course is among the easier on the PGA TOUR for greens in regulation. However, the course rating is among the ten toughest on the TOUR in 2019 to get up and down if players missed the green on approach.

3M OPEN OPENS DOOR TO MORE LONGSHOTS IN CONTENTION

Another shootout is expected and low scores widens the list of players with longer golf betting odds to hit the leaderboard and contend for a top finish or win. The winning scores the past two years of the event have been -21 (263) and -19 (265). In 2019, six of the top-10 finishers had pre-tournament odds to win of +8000 or greater including winner Matthew Wolff (+12500), whose eagle on the closing par 5 gave him a one-shot win over Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa.

In last year’s 2020 event, Michael Thompson won at +10000 odds, and runner-up Adam Long (+15000) was an even greater longshot. Eight players tied for third, and a total of eight players who finished in the top 10 had odds to win of at least +8000.

KEY STATS

Some key stats and categories to evaluate more closely for the 3M Open include:

  • Strokes Gained: Approach (weight most heavily)
  • Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee
  • Strokes Gained: Par 4
  • Strokes Gained: Par 5
  • Birdies or Better
  • Proximity to hole: 175-200 yards
  • SG: Putting (Bentgrass)

The best players in this field in Birdies or Better Gained: (Last 36 rounds)

  • Jason Kokrak
  • Patton Kizzire
  • Emiliano Grillo
  • Dustin Johnson
  • Troy Merrit
  • Cam Davis
  • Brandon Grace
  • Maverick McNealy

Of the players in the 3M field, Jason Kokrak leads all players in birdie average on the PGA TOUR this season and is overall top 10. Next in the field and top 20 in birdie average is Patton Kizzire, followed by Cameron Tringale, Cam Davis, Patrick Reed and Dustin Johnson in the top 30.

Next week, it’s the Olympic Men’s Golf Competition in Japan, and then the World Golf Championships – FedEx St. Jude Invitational the first week of August.

FairwayJay Avatar
Written by
FairwayJay

FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

View all posts by FairwayJay