John Haslbauer’s 2022 3M Open Betting Card, Final Thoughts

Written By John Haslbauer on July 20, 2022
3m open bets

It’s no Major, but the 3M Open has still produced some dramatic finishes in its short history on the PGA TOUR. While I can’t pretend I’m as excited about this week as any other on the schedule, I’m feeling confident about my 3M Open bets, considering a similar profile of players has gotten themselves into contention each year at this event. 

As an open course with generous greens which sits slightly above TOUR average in terms of length on the scorecard, TPC Twin Cities should suit the best total drivers in the field – preferably with plus-distance – who can steadily generate birdie opportunities on the par-5s and short par-4s. Without much nuance to these greens, we’ve seen deficient putters find success here, so I’ve built my card around the upside of top ball-strikers playing more level to the field on the greens. Wind is forecasted to be a factor this week, and after it relegated the 2021 winning score to -15, I’ll go with a prediction of -18 for the winner this time around.

Below we’ll go through my final betting card for the 2022 3M Open. Click the odds anywhere in this article to bet the best available prices in your state now. 

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HOW I BUILT MY GOLF BETTING CARD

I’m not really drawn to any of the favorites this week who each have above-average course history but questionable recent form leading in. So in an event that hasn’t been kind to favorites, I’ve gone about constructing my outright card by peppering  the mid-range and sprinkling a few additional longshots. Overall, my outright exposure is just under the usual 3U allocations, but I’m content with the group of players I’ve gotten exposure to. I’m just hoping to have a runner in the race come Sunday to keep me interested, and I’m optimistic in the group of top ball-strikers with upside to make birdies in easy scoring conditions. From a unit allocation standpoint, it’s back to business as usual after upping the ante at the final Major of the year last week.

  • Outrights – 2.9U in to pay 24U each
  • First-round leader 0.5U in to pay out 10U+
  • Props – 3U in to pay out 3U+ each

Click on any of the odds below to bet now at the best available price across legal sportsbooks in your state.

3M OPEN BETS: OUTRIGHTS (2.9 UNITS)

Davis Riley

My Bet: +2700

Best Odds Still Available:

I’m starting my card with Davis Riley at 27-1, and although that feels a bit short for a rookie who’s never won on TOUR before, I think it’s an appropriate value considering the drop-off of talent in this field after the big three of Matsuyama, Finau, and Im. Riley has stockpiled seven top-15 finishes already this season, which might’ve been enough to make him the rookie of the year frontrunner if not for Cameron Young’s transcendent season. Even still, it’s hard to overlook what Riley’s accomplished this year, as he ranks No. 3 in this field in SG: TOT over the last 36 rounds. Riley has shown elite upside in all facets of his game recently, gaining 6 strokes off the tee at the Travelers Championship, over 7 Strokes on Approach at the Charles Schwab Challenge, and over 9 strokes putting at the Mexico Open. He’s put himself in contention often in 2022, and it’s only a matter of time before he pieces everything together in one tournament to pick up his first career win.

Brendan Steele

My Bet: +4000

Best Odds Still Available:

Had it not been for Cameron Champ’s mind-boggling performance on the greens at last year’s 3M Open, I’d probably never consider betting a player like Brendan Steele who ranks No. 120 in SG: P and No. 144 in SG: Short Game over the last 36 rounds. However, these greens complexes at TPC Twin Cities has proven to be very straightforward to maneuver, even for the most deficient players in the field. So if that’s the case, and players can only separate themselves from the pack through their ball striking, then I’m happy to get my exposure through Steele. He’s been absolutely clinical with his ball striking over his last four starts, picking up recent top-10 finishes at the Memorial and PGA Championship. Steele ranks No. 1 in SG: Ball Striking and SG: OTT so he’ll go as far as the putter allows him to this week.

Nick Hardy

My Bet: +4500

Best Odds Still Available:

This is my first time testing the waters with a Nick Hardy bet, but a course which rewards consistency off the tee to avoid the ample water hazards seems to be an ideal place to start. Over the last 50 rounds, Hardy has gained strokes off the tee 85% of the time, which is the highest percentage of anyone in this field. The rookie has begun to hit his stride over the last few months, as he’s now finished top-35 in each of his last four starts, including a T15 at the U.S. Open and T8 at the Travelers, where he gained strokes across all four categories. He showed the ability to catch a streaky putter while circling contention at the U.S. Open, so he should be able to build confidence from that experience against a more beatable field at the 3M Open.

Chris Gotterup

My Bet: +5000

Best Odds Still Available: +4500

I expected Gotterup would be a fairly popular play when profiling him as my spotlight play for this week even despite the ugly missed cut in his previous start at the Barbasol Championship, but I did not expect him to slip all the way down to 50-1 odds just one event removed from being the odds-on favorite. It’s early, but Gotterup’s game profiles extremely similar to Cameron Champs in that both possess top-5 distance off the tee with strong iron play and an erratic putter. Gotterup has plenty of room to improve on the greens, but he’s already proven his ball-striking is TOUR quality to justify the 50-1 price tag.

Doug Ghim

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

There’s no KH Lee in the field this week, so Doug Ghim is our TPC specialist understudy. He’s already shown us flashes early in his career, contending at THE PLAYERS each of the last two years. Ghim is also one of only four players this week to rank top-20 in Opportunities Gained, SG: OTT, and SG: APP, which is the baseline profile fit I’m looking for in a player to find success at TPC Twin Cities. 

Lucas Glover

My Bet: +13000

Best Odds Still Available:

This is a value bet on a number that did not last long on Monday, but Glover was a player I had circled on a short list after a first pass of researching the 2022 3M Open. He rated out No. 7 in my model this week, with top-25 ranks in Opportunities Gained, SG: APP, SG: BS, SG: OTT, Par-5 Scoring, and Comp Course History, so I don’t need much more convincing to pull the trigger at these odds.

3M OPEN FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

Matthew NeSmith

My Bet: +8000

Best Odds Still Available:

I tried to find a way to squeeze NeSmith on my outright card, but ultimately settled for exposure in the first round leader market instead, given the poor course history. So although he’s missed the cut in two prior appearances, a course which rewards top-tier ball-striking should suit NeSmith’s game perfectly, and he’s no stranger to getting off to a hot start on Thursday.

Doug Ghim

My Bet: +8000

Best Odds Still Available:

It’s hard to trust that Doug Ghim’s putter will hold up for four days, but his elite metrics both off the tee and on approach should help create ample birdie opportunities, which sets him up well to post an early number on a great course fit.

Danny Lee

My Bet: +9000

Best Odds Still Available:

It’s been some time since we showed support from the Danny Lee-gion, but I love this spot for the New Zealander. Over the last 36 rounds, Lee ranks No. 1 in Birdies or Better Gained. He might be the most volatile player on the PGA TOUR, just as likely to make bogey as birdie on any given hole, but it’s hard to pass up on that birdie making ability at these odds, at least for one round.

Lee Hodges

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

From one Lee to another, Hodges stacks up to be a good profile fit for this course, as he’s starting to trend across all four categories, particularly with his irons, now having gained strokes in five straight events. He’s a long shot, but if he can get out to a hot start at a water-laden birdie fest like The AmEx, then I see no reason why he can’t post similar number this Thursday.

Doc Redman

My Bet: +14000

Best Odds Still Available:

I’m including Doc Redman as first round leader in my 3M Open bets on the notion of his long-term birdie making pedigree and comp performance on TPC Louisiana, which I believe to be the top comp course to TPC Twin Cities. It’s there that he posted his best finish of the 2022 season, a T3 at the Zurich Classic, and after showing some signs of life with a top-20 at the Barracuda Championship last week, he’s got a path to find success on this layout.

3M OPEN BETS: PROPS (3 UNITS)

Top-20 Finish: Matthew NeSmith

My Bet: +250

Best Odds Still Available:

Although it hasn’t materialized itself into results yet at the 3M Open, NeSmith’s profile of consistent control off the tee and top-tier iron play should suit TPC Twin Cities perfectly. He’d carried a streak of seven straight made cuts before his last start at the Scottish Open with two top-20 finishes over that span, so against a weaker field this week, I like his chances to find himself inside the top-20.

Top-30 Finish: Brice Garnett

My Bet: +250

Best Odds Still Available:

We should know by now to never doubt the Big Ticket in the Twin Cities. He joins Tony Finau as the only two players to finish top-30 in each of the first three iterations of the 3M Open. The form has never been great entering this tournament for Garnett, so we can take encouragement from the top-20 finish at last week’s Barracuda Championship in the hopes he can make it four straight top-30s at the 3M Open.

Top-20 Finish: Doug Ghim

My Bet: +320

Best Odds Still Available:

This is my favorite bet of the week, and although the odds are fairly long at +320, it is the bet I have the most conviction in on my card. Ghim posted a top-20 finish in his debut at the 3M Open back in 2019 and has two top-20s over his last four starts between the RBC Canadian Open and Scottish Open. We should expect Ghim to gain on the field with his ball striking, so this bet should simply come down to how many putts he’s able to convert.

Top-20 Finish: Lee Hodges

My Bet: +450

Best Odds Still Available:

Lee Hodges is a gut call among my 3m Open bets this week, but I like that he’s already shown top-10 upside his rookie season at The AmEx and Honda Classic. He’s above average in each of the key stats I plugged in to my model this week, and has started to round out into form, making the cut in four of his last five starts.

ONE AND DONE

My Pick: Davis Riley

TPC Twin Cities rewards elite total driving – particularly for those who have plus-distance – and a propensity to gain 5+ strokes on Approach and Putting is what’s historically been required to win this event. Riley comfortably checks all those boxes, and is positioned well to contend without a ton of resistance otherwise from this field. With five top-15 finishes over his last seven starts, I’ll take Riley’s current form over anyone else’s in this field.

If not Riley, I would also consider Sungjae Im, Brendan Steele, and Chris Gotterup.

3M OPEN BETS: THE CARD

That’ll do it for my 2022 3M Open bets. Best of luck this week with your own golf betting. See you on Sunday for the 2022 Rocket Mortgage Classic preview.


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John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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