2023 3M Open Bets: Final Thoughts, Golf Betting Card, One And Done

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Written By John Haslbauer | Last Updated
3m open bets

With the British Open in the review, just two events separate us from the FedEx Cup Playoffs. The 2023 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota is next on tap, and comes with some elevated stakes with only the top 70 players in the FedEx Playoff standings advancing to Memphis. Tony Finau, Cameron Young, Hideki Matsuyama, and Sungjae Im headline as the favorites across golf odds and potential 3M Open bets.

After an anticlimactic runaway finish by Brian Harman last week, here’s hoping for a bit more excitement in Minnesota, with one of the most entertaining finishing stretches on the PGA TOUR. In a field that lacks both an imposing favorite and depth in the bottom half of the board, there’s still plenty of value to exploit at the best sports betting sites. Let’s get into all of my bets placed for the 2023 3M Open.

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HOW I BUILT MY 3M Open BETTING CARD

Bombers who can avoid the constant threat of water hazards and consistently generate birdie looks with streaky iron play have held the upper hand historically at the 3M Open in each of its first four years on the PGA TOUR schedule. Cameron Champ famously led the field in putting despite ranking dead last in strokes gained putting leading into his 2021 victory, so suffice to say these greens are straightforward enough to read that any player has the ability to catch fire on them. As such, I’ve concentrated my betting card this week to target elite ball strikers with plus distance, putting very little stock into short game form as a whole.

In terms of unit allocations for my card this week, it’s back to business as usual for my weekly PGA TOUR exposure:

  • Outrights – 3U in to pay 24U each
  • FRL – 0.5U in to pay out 10U+ each
  • Props – 3U in to pay out 3U+ each

Click on any of the 3M Open odds below for the best available prices across sportsbooks in your state.

3m open BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)

Note: Many of these bets were made early in the week and were popular picks in the golf betting world. To get the best of the number, be sure to join our free sports betting Discord channel and check out the golf discussions server. You can also get notified when I make my bets under the roles server to get push notifications sent to your Discord app.

Cameron Young

My Bet: +1800
Best Available Odds:

With limited data available from the British Open last week, it would be easy to miss that Cameron Young actually led the field in both SG: OTT and SG: APP. While an ice cold putter resorted him to a T8 finish, I expect that elite ball striking form to be sustainable as he returns back to the states for this event. Young is one of the most consistent drivers in the sport, gaining strokes off-the-tee all but once over the last 15 months. That should give him a nice head start on a course like TPC Twin Cities which demands elite driving, and his distance advantage (No. 3 Driving Distance) should allow him to feast on the drivable par-4s and three reachable par-5s here. As always, it’ll boil down to the putter for Young, but if Champ and Finau can master these greens, I’ll keep my hopes up.

Ludvig Aberg

My Bet: +3500
Best Available Odds:

Most of the top players in this field are here to improve their position in the FedEx Cup standings. Aberg, not being a full time PGA TOUR member, has different motivations this week, as his focus will be on auditioning for a selection by Luke Donald on to the European Ryder Cup team.

Aberg is a transcendent talent with the driver, gaining 4+ strokes off the tee in each of his last four PGA TOUR starts. TPC Twin Cities is a perfect fit for him in that regard, as its proven to give players like Matthew Wolff, Cameron Champ, and Tony Finau – long and straight drivers – a leg up. With a T4 at the John Deere Classic two starts ago, Aberg has already proven he has what it takes to compete with the best players in the world, and he’ll walk in to an ideal set up for his game at TPC Twin Cities.

Eric Cole

My Bet: +6000
Best Available Odds:

Eric Cole does not exactly boast the same driving chops as Young or Aberg, but he more than makes up for it with the rest of his game. No. 4 in total strokes gained over the last 36 rounds, this is mainly a value bet on the discounted 60-1 odds for a player who has delivered five top-15s over the last five months. No. 1 in Birdies or Better Gained, Cole’s ability to contend this week will simply come down to whether he can avoid these many water hazards off the tee. Considering his best finish this season came on a similar off-the-tee test at the Honda Classic, I like the upside for this discounted price.

Lucas Glover

My Bet: +6000
Best Available Odds:

Seemingly everyone who has access to a model or strokes gained data in general has lined up to add Lucas Glover this week at 60-1 odds to their 3M Open bets. His leading form is the quintessential fit for what you want to see in a 3M Open contender. He’s gained 6+ strokes ball striking in four of his last five starts, and is No. 1 in SG: Ball Striking over the last 36 rounds. In his latest start at the Barbasol Championship, he gained a career-high 10 strokes on approach. An equipment change to the broomstick-style putter has paid immediate dividends for Glover as well, as he ranks No. 12 in SG: Putting over his last 12 rounds since making the switch. As long as his ball striking form remains intact on a course that will offer little resistance, I expect Glover to be in the mix come Sunday.

Austin Eckroat

My Bet: +9000
Best Available Odds:

My featured spotlight player of the week, Austin Eckroat has all the raw tools needed to feast on TPC Twin Cities. In his first full season on the PGA TOUR, Eckroat has risen dramatically with five top-16 finishes over his last 10 starts. Before settling in to this upper-echelon form, Eckroat impressed in his 2021 3M Open debut with a T16 finish, which came in just his sixth career PGA TOUR start. Ranking No. 18 overall in my model this week, Eckroat’s combination of control off-the-tee (No. 4 in Good Drives Gained) and proven results in comparable birdie fests creates a great value opportunity at these long odds.

3m open FIRST-ROUND LEADER BETS (0.5 UNITS)

Aaron Rai

My Bet: +6000
Best Available Odds:

The ideal candidate to go low at TPC Twin Cities probably has a bit more length off-the-tee than Rai, but you won’t have to worry much about the hazards in play off-the-tee given his precision with driver. The putter has started to heat up at the closing stretch of the season, and with the irons continuing to percolate, this is yet another set up that should favor his game to get off to a hot start.

Taylor Pendrith

My Bet: +6500
Best Available Odds:

The season has suddenly taken a turn for the best for Pendrith, returning to his pre-Presidents Cup form by gaining strokes both off-the-tee and on approach in each of his last four starts. His sheer distance and aggressive, driving-heavy approach combined with trending iron play and a streaky putter all set up well to go low in these conditions.

Austin Eckroat

My Bet: +7000
Best Available Odds:

Eckroat has proven to be partial to easier scoring conditions, delivering top-5 finishes at the Corales Puntacana Championship and AT&T Byron Nelson earlier this season. Top-30 in both SG: Ball Striking and SG: Putting, Eckroat is always a threat to post the low round of the day in easy scoring conditions.

Doug Ghim

My Bet: +8000
Best Available Odds:

Before Ghim straightened things out with the putter, he was already gaining a reputation as a repeat first round leader consideration over his first couple of years on TOUR. In 2023, he’s beginning to look more polished, as he’s gained strokes putting in three of his last four starts. Twice a top 20 finisher at the 3M Open in lesser form, this looks to be a course that suits Ghim’s eye well.

Scott Piercy

My Bet: +18000
Best Available Odds

Believe it or not, Scott Piercy has already cashed as first round leader twice at the 3M Open – first in 2019, and again last year. That is not being priced into his 180-1 odds here, and with him entering in similar form to years past, this bet is well worth the low risk as he chases a third.

3m open PROPS (3 UNITS)

Top-20 Finish: Lucas Glover

My Bet: +240
Best Available Odds:

Whenever we’re staking our bets behind Lucas Glover, we’ve needed to hold our breathe that the putter will cooperate. His recent equipment change does inspire more hope on the greens, but I like this as an insurance bet on the outright, as his ball striking form alone is enough to lead him towards his fourth consecutive top-20 finish.

Top-40 Finish: Scott Piercy

My Bet: +300
Best Available Odds:

A two-time top-20 finisher at the 3M Open, there may be a feeling of unfinished business for Scott Piercy, who was leading this event with six holes to play. Piercy has finished top-40 in three of his last six starts, and shown consistency with his ball striking throughout, ranking top-30 in SG: Ball Striking, SG: APP, and Opportunities Gained.

Top-40 Finish: Brice Garnett

My Bet: +300
Best Available Odds:

The Big Ticket has never finished worse than T31 at the 3M Open over its first four contests, and his form is no worse in 2023 than it has been in years past. It’s clear this is a comfort course for Garnett, so with eight made cuts over his last nine starts, I’ll chase the course history here while he’s still in passable form.

Top-20 Finish: Doug Ghim

My Bet: +333
Best Available Odds:

Ghim continues to trend in the right direction to close out his season, carrying a streak of six consecutive top-35 finishes on the PGA TOUR. With two top-20s over three career 3M Open appearances, it would make sense for that hot form to continue on a set up he’s found repeated success at in the past.

ONE AND DONE

My Pick: Ludvig Aberg

I do have Cameron Young at my disposal still for One And Done, and if I were in a better position at this point of the season, I would likely make the easy call on the player with the best odds available. Unfortunately, I’m still chasing a betting position, so I’m going a bit further down the board for a riskier pick who I still believe possesses the some win upside as Young. Aberg’s elite combination of distance and accuracy off the tee is perfect for TPC Twin Cities, and how high he finishes up the leaderboard will ultimately be determined by how many birdie opportunities he can successfully convert. My expectations are high for Aberg in a “prove it” week just a couple months out from the Ryder Cup.

If not Aberg, I would also consider Cameron Young, Lucas Glover, or Tony Finau as OAD picks.

That’ll do it for this week’s 3M Open bets. Best of luck this week with your own 3M Open bets, and see you on Sunday for the Wyndham Championship! For more, follow TheLines on Twitter.

3M Open: THE BETTING CARD

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