3 Underdog NBA Picks & Predictions For NBA On ESPN Wednesday Night

Written By Josh Lander | Published at March 20, 2024

Wednesday night's NBA action includes a battle between the top two teams in the Eastern Conference, Bucks and Celtics. With eight games on the slate, odds for player prop markets are open. After comparing the best prices available, I unearthed three tasty Underdog NBA picks, all of which can provide quality value as straight bets in areas with legal betting sites. Continue on to learn why I'm backing the Suns' Bradley Beal and Raptors forward Ochai Agbaji while grabbing an under for Kings guard De'Aaron Fox.

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NBA Player Prop Pick: Bradley Beal Over points (1 unit)

Underdog NBA Picks: Higher or Lower Than 17.5 Points

Beal enters Wednesday night's tilt with the 76ers on a heater over his last 15 games. Since February began, the Suns' two-guard is averaging 21.3 PPG in nearly 33 minutes per contest. His 15.6 field goal attempts rank third on the team behind his perennial All-NBA teammates, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant. Beal, however, has the benefit of playing a few more minutes per game with the bench unit, affording him plenty of offensive possessions as the team's primary option each game.

His impressive stats over the last six weeks include two games where he saw just 25 minutes combined. Excluding those two affairs, Beal has topped 17 points in nine of his last 13 appearances, playing at least 31 minutes in every game.

Philly has been much better on defense in their last five games, boasting the fifth-best defensive rating. That said, they've played a few teams struggling on offense: the Hornets (30th in offensive efficiency), Heat (27th), and the Knicks twice (21st).

Despite a few impressive defensive showings, the 76ers have watched multiple shooting guards top their prop lines. It's a position they've failed to effectively limit all season, as they allow the fifth-most PPG to Beal's scoring profile. At 32.5 MPG and roughly 16 shots, Beal is a solid candidate to reach at least 18 points with a favorable matchup for his position.

Use our player props search tool to find the best odds for NBA props on your favorite players. If you're interested in betting spreads, discuss betting angles with other NBA bettors in our free Discord.

NBA Player Prop Pick: ochai Agbaji Over PoinTS (1 unit)

Underdog NBA Picks: Higher or Lower Than 10.5 Points

Toronto has all but given up on the 2023-24 season. The team's injury report lists four of five starters as unavailable, which will likely be the case for the majority of its remaining games. There will be plenty of shots to go around for the Raptors' remaining players, including Ochai Agbaji.

While we don't have any examples of the Raptors forward playing without all four missing starters, we have seen his minutes spike dramatically as of late. In the last two games, Agbaji is up to second on the team in minutes and fourth in shot attempts (9.5 FGA). I'm projecting that number to jump to 12 against the Kings on Wednesday night.

Sacramento allows the fifth-most points per game to Agbaji's scoring profile. That's mostly due to his ability to drive to the rim and play in transition. The Kings have recorded the sixth-worst defensive field goal percentage versus shots at the rim over their last 10 games. On the season as a whole, they allow the seventh-most transition points to opponents.

This game should be an up-and-down affair with both teams in the top 10 in transition offense frequency. Toronto continues to lead the league in transition possessions, partly due to its lackluster half-court offense. Give me the over for Agbaji's point total in a fast-paced game against a weak interior defense.

NBA Player Prop Pick: de'aaron fox under points + Rebounds (1 unit)

Underdog NBA Picks: Higher or Lower Than 33.5 Points + Rebounds

While a fast pace in Toronto should benefit Agbaji's individual output, it will also play right into the Kings' hands. Sacramento is much better when games are played at a frenetic pace. That's in large part thanks to its lightning-fast point guard, De'Aaron Fox, who most often finds himself leading the fast break.

There are a couple of factors, however, working against Fox topping his points and rebound combo prop.

For starters, oddsmakers don't see this one remaining close, listing the Kings as favorites on the road. The likely possibility of a blowout puts Fox's minutes in jeopardy. Toronto likely won't be able to hang on offense without the majority of its rotation players available. Even with Immanuel Quickley in the lineup, the Raptors have the worst offensive rating (99.0) over their last three games.

With another road game in Washington on Thursday, followed by a matchup in Orlando on Saturday, expect head coach Mike Brown to seek rest for his starting PG wherever he can find it.

Lastly, Fox has been much better in big games against conference foes. He's gone cleanly under 33 points and rebounds combined in eight of his last 11 meetings with Eastern Conference teams. In those 11 games, he's averaging 21.8 PPG (despite a 29% usage rate) and 4.4 RPG. Those numbers are notably meek compared to his last 10 against Western Conference squads: 28.5 PPG with 5.8 RPG on 32.5% usage.