Underdog NBA Picks: 3 Predictions Include Aaron Gordon For ESPN Wednesday Night

Written By Josh Lander | Published at April 10, 2024

14 of the 16 NBA teams on Wednesday night's slate will play on no rest. Injury reports have been slow to come out, but there are already a few player props with good value across sports betting sites and Underdog NBA picks. As always, make sure you know which coaches plan to play their starters normal minutes before placing a wager. I'm confident we're going to see plenty of Khris Middleton, Evan Mobley, and Aaron Gordon. Let's look more closely at how we can take advantage of their prop lines.

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NBA Player Prop Pick: khris middleton Over points (1 unit)

Underdog NBA Picks: Higher or Lower Than 16.5 Points

Milwaukee's coaching staff has yet to rely on Middleton in back-to-back games this season. The 12-year vet has only suited up for one game on no rest, scoring 12 points in just 15 minutes against the Spurs. You can throw those numbers in the trash, however. It's all hands on deck against the Magic as the Bucks look to maintain their hold on the 2-seed in the East.

Especially without Giannis Antetokounmpo in the lineup.

Giannis left the Bucks' victory over the Celtics early on Tuesday night. Tests came back negative for damage to his Achilles tendon; however, the team has already shut him down for the last three games of the regular season. Which is all to say, it's Khris and Dame time in Milwaukee for at least the near future.

Middleton has played five games without Antetokounmpo this season. He's topped 16.5 points in the last three, but we need to look at his minutes logged. In the first two games without Giannis, he only saw 20 minutes of action. In the last three, he's averaged 31 MPG. With increased minutes came a larger volume of shots as well, upping his attempts from 9.5 over the first two games to 14.

Use our player props search tool to find the best odds for NBA props on your favorite players. If you're interested in betting spreads, discuss betting angles with other NBA bettors in our free Discord.

NBA Player Prop Pick: evan mobley over points (1 unit)

Underdog NBA Picks: Higher or Lower Than 15.5 Points

On paper, Mobley and the Cavs should run away with this one at home against the Grizzlies. Memphis has all but given up on the season and will trot out a rotation of players most NBA fans have never heard of. Cleveland, meanwhile, is one of just two teams that didn't play on Tuesday night and will be well-rested. Bettors should proceed with caution when betting player prop overs in this game, as the blowout potential is high.

That said, 22-year-old Evan Mobley is seemingly "blowout-proof." In fact, he's logged 30 minutes per game when the Cavs have won by at least 10 points this season. He's also recorded at least 16 points in nine of those 13 occasions, averaging 17.2.

Since returning from injury nine games ago, his minutes have continued to rise. After playing 23 minutes per night in his first three games back, he's back up to over 30 MPG in his last six. Just as important, his field goal attempts jumped to 14 per game, nearly doubling the average of his first three. His volume and minutes should be safe, so let's back Mobley against a severely weakened Grizzlies defense.

NBA Player Prop Pick: aaron gordon over REBounds (1 unit)

Underdog NBA Picks: Higher or Lower Than 5.5 Rebounds

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves should provide plenty of entertainment between the two teams atop the West. Nikola Jokic's matchup with Rudy Gobert and Anthony Edwards vs. Jamal Murray will garner a ton of focus. However, I found value in the battle between Aaron Gordon and Naz Reid.

Gordon's rebounding numbers are heavily matchup-dependent. As the team's most versatile big man, he's often called upon to guard ball-dominant wings such as Kevin Durant. In those instances, his rebound totals suffer as he's forced to play further from the basket on defense. Though Naz Reid is a quality shooting big man, he plays much closer to the basket than guys like Durant.

This premise held true when these teams matched up on March 29. Gordon spent almost his entire time on the court defending Reid, finishing with seven boards over 31 minutes. That outing was a part of his current six-game streak with at least six-plus rebounds, something he's done in eight of his last ten.

I'm going to ride the hot hand on the glass in the biggest game of the season out west. Best of luck with all your Underdog NBA picks tonight.