2026 Olympic Games: Medal Predictions, Odds and Picks for Feb. 16

Monday’s Olympic slate delivers one of the most compelling Americans-first betting days of the Games, combining a high-stakes team semifinal with two gold medal events that could meaningfully impact the U.S. medal count. Team USA women’s hockey takes center stage in a semifinal showdown against Sweden, with a trip to the gold medal game on the line. On the ice in a different venue, the pairs free skate will determine figure skating medals, while the women’s 1000m short track final unfolds in one of the most volatile disciplines of the Winter Olympics.

For bettors using sports betting apps, this is a card that blends structure with upside. Hockey offers a strong favorite with alternate puck-line value, while figure skating and short track provide true plus-money gold opportunities. With medals being awarded in two of the three events and championship positioning at stake in the third, Monday presents a rare balance of reliability and ceiling for U.S.-focused wagers.

All Odds via DraftKings

Women’s Hockey Semifinal: USA vs Sweden

Pick: USA -4.5 (+155)

Team USA enters the semifinal as a massive favorite, but instead of laying an unplayable moneyline, the value sits on the alternate puck line. The Americans have rolled through the tournament behind elite depth, relentless forechecking and dominant special teams.

Sweden is disciplined defensively, but the talent gap is significant. In knockout play, the U.S. has consistently separated from second-tier opponents with multi-goal bursts, and at plus money, the -4.5 spread offers real upside if the Americans impose their pace early.

Figure Skating: Pairs Free Skate (Gold Medal Event)

Pick: USA Pairing To Win Gold (+105)

The pairs free skate decides medals on Monday, with the Americans still having a couple of chances to earn a gold medal. With the short program tightening the leaderboard, execution in the free skate becomes everything.

The U.S. duos have a technical base value and lift quality that give them a legitimate path to the top of the podium if they skate clean. In a discipline where one major error can swing the standings, backing the Americans at plus money is a balanced blend of form and price.

Short Track Speed Skating: Women’s 1000m Final

Pick: Kristen Santos-Griswold To Win Gold (+550)

The women’s 1000m is one of the most chaotic finals in short track, and that volatility is exactly why a longshot like Kristen Santos-Griswold is worth considering at +1600. In this event, gold often comes down to positioning, decision-making in traffic and avoiding penalties as much as pure speed, which can open the door for a surprise result.

Of course, Santos-Griswold still has work to do before any gold ticket truly comes alive. She’ll need to keep advancing through the earlier rounds to even reach the final, and short track can flip instantly on one bad corner or one bump in the pack. But if she navigates cleanly and lands in a favorable lane position late, +1600 is the type of price that’s worth a sprinkle as you cheer for Team USA.

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Monday’s Olympic card blends stability with swing-for-the-fences upside. Women's hockey offers plus-money exposure in a semifinal where the Americans should control the pace from start to finish, while the pairs free skate and women’s 1000m short track final provide true medal sweat equity.

As always in Olympic competition, margins are razor-thin and momentum can shift quickly, so shop lines across sports betting apps and lock in value before event time. The earlier rounds leading up to the actual finals in certain events can also lead to additional complexity in the path to picking the right medalist. But if execution matches expectation, Monday could be a strong day for red, white and blue bettors.

All Odds as of Feb. 15 at 11:59 p.m. ET