2024 PGA TOUR Golf Bets: John’s Valspar Championship Final Thoughts, Betting Card, OAD

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Written By John Haslbauer | Last Updated

The 2024 PGA TOUR golf season continues, with Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead) next on tap to host the Valspar Championship in Palm Harbor, Florida, beginning Thursday. Xander Schauffele, Sam Burns, and Justin Thomas headline among Valspar Championship bets this week, as John Haslbauer provides his favorite picks among all the golf odds for this tourney. Below, you’ll find the best odds across betting sites for each player.

It’s the final leg of the Florida Swing as we get ready to tee-off this Thursday in Palm Harbor, Florida, for the 2024 Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course. While the field and stakes are not quite at the caliber of recent Signature events, Copperhead is a great challenge and should be an exciting watch with several top-20 players here to tee it up. Below, we’ll go through my final Valspar Championship bets. Click the odds anywhere in this article to place Valspar Championship Invitational wagers. 

For a full breakdown of the tournament and course, visit my Valspar Championship preview

VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: THE FAVORITES

Click on any of Valspar Championship odds below for the best available prices across sportsbooks in your state. Navigate to my longshots post for more golf DFS picks and considerations.

HOW I BUILT MY PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP BETTING CARD

The Valspar Championship is expected to present the field with a much sterner test than the last two years. Winds appear to be up, and efforts have been made to grow out the rough and tighten the fairways even further. With no Scottie Scheffler to worry about in this week’s field, I’ve taken chances on a diverse range of stars and longshots this week. They all share a common through line of elite approach play from beyond 175 yards.

From a unit allocation standpoint, it’s back to business as usual for my weekly stake at the 2024 Valspar Championship.

  • Outrights – 3.5U in to pay 25U each
  • FRL – 0.5U in to pay out 10U+ each
  • Full Tournament Matchups – 1U in to pay out 2U
  • Props – 1.5U in to pay out 3U+ each

VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3.5 UNITS)

Tony Finau

My Bet: +2400
Best Available Odds:

Long iron plays rule all at the Copperhead Course. Whenever you come across a course with five par-3s beyond 195 yards, four par-5s, and several par-4s that force layups to a similar distance, it’s a safe bet that players who excel in long-range proximity can separate themselves from the pack. Though not a very good comp to Copperhead, Finau’s prowess with long irons is key to his sustained success at Vidanta Vallarta. That’s where he has finished T13-or-better in each of the last three years and gained at least four strokes on approach each time.

This week, Finau ranks No. 1 in SG: APP over the last 36 rounds and No. 4 in Prox: 175+ over the same span. Having gained strokes putting in each of his last two starts, his putter will continue to be the x-factor that determines how likely he is to contend this week.

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Cameron Young

My Bet: +3000
Best Available Odds:

My featured spotlight player of the week, I was still a bit surprised to see Young drift to the 30-1 odds range on Monday morning. The market has quickly corrected itself since, but he still remains my favorite bet of the week at this price.

The more challenging conditions, the better for Cameron Young. He has already had four top-10 finishes in Majors since 2022. The Valspar Championship is one of the most Major-like events of the year from a scoring difficulty standpoint when wind is a factor, as shown last year with Taylor Moore emerging victorious at just 10-under par. He’s looked solid so far over the first three legs of the Florida Swing, highlighted by a T4 finish at The Cognizant Classic.

Keith Mitchell

My Bet: +5000
Best Available Odds:

As we get past the top of the betting board, all signs keep pointing me back to Keith Mitchell as a standout value in this secondary tier. With such a premium on long-iron approach play, Mitchell is elite in this field in terms of Prox: 175+ (No. 9) and overall approach form leading in (No. 2 SG: APP L36). While the driver is the strength of his game, he’s always played well on positional venues like Copperhead, too, ranking No. 11 in Comp Course History.

Still chasing his first win since the 2019 Honda Classic, he should welcome a return back to Florida in the midst of a stretch of three top-20s over his last four starts.

Aaron Rai

My Bet: +6600
Best Available Odds:

I don’t often bet Aaron Rai for more than one round at a time, but I’m willing to make an exception on a course like Innisbrook Resort, which levels the playing field for shorter hitters and rewards accurate ball-striking.

The two-time DP World Tour winner is no stranger to playing himself in contention, and he continues to trend into form in 2024 with three consecutive top-35 finishes leading into this week. No. 7 overall in my model this week, Rai’s consistency on approach from beyond 175 yards should pay dividends in his Valspar Championship debut.

Doug Ghim

My Bet: +7000
Best Available Odds:

At 70-1 odds, it doesn’t exactly feel like we’re paying the premium we should be in the midst of this heater from Doug Ghim. A standout amateur talent at the University of Texas, Ghim seems to have finally caught his stride on the PGA TOUR. He’s now finished top-20 in each of his last five starts, and ranks top-10 in SG: APP, Scrambling, and Par-5 Scoring over that stretch.

A T27 finisher here last year, this is yet another venue that should cater to his strengths of precision if the driver and long irons.

Sam Ryder

My Bet: +10000
Best Available Odds:

Much like the rest of the players on my outright card, Sam Ryder also excels in Prox: 175+ and overall SG: Approach, ranking top-15 in both categories. A Florida resident, Ryder has finally paid off the regression due to putting on more familiar Bermuda greens, as he’s gained over nine strokes putting in his last two starts. A T19 finisher here last year, Ryder seems poised to build on that hot off back-to-back top-20s in Florida.

Matthew NeSmith

My Bet: +22000
Best Available Odds:

Scottie Scheffler is not in the field this week, which makes me feel a lot more comfortable taking some longshot outright fliers. In the case of Matthew NeSmith, there is tremendous value here based on the course history alone. NeSmith has finished T3 and T21 over his first two appearances in this event, and showed life at THE PLAYERS last week, where he gained strokes across all four Strokes Gained categories.

VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

Keith Mitchell

My Bet: +6000
Best Available Odds:

In Keith Mitchell’s last appearance at the Valspar Championship, he lost a mind-boggling 12 strokes putting, which we later discovered was due to playing with a faulty, bent putter. Assuming all of his equipment is up to spec this week, he’s a candidate to feast on these par-5s and catch fire putting on these Bermuda greens.

Aaron Rai

My Bet: +6600
Best Available Odds:

I brazenly declared that there was no better set up for Aaron Rai to emerge as FRL than at TPC Sawgrass last week. I was wrong. However, in good news, Innisbrook Resort comps very well to TPC Sawgrass, with similar sight lines off-the-tee and continued emphasis on accuracy and positioning.

Sam Ryder

My Bet: +8000
Best Available Odds:

At THE PLAYERS last week, Sam Ryder set the record for most birdies carded in tournament history. That’s exactly the type of aggressiveness and form you’d like to see from a prospective FRL candidate if he can keep that momentum going while remaining in Florida.

Seamus Power

My Bet: +11000
Best Available Odds:

It’s been a long time since we saw Seamus Power show some form, but he appears to have slowly turned a corner again in 2024. He enters this week on a stretch of five consecutive made cuts, and was No. 2 in SG: APP in the final round of THE PLAYERS last week.

KH Lee

My Bet: +11000
Best Available Odds:

A constant consideration in the FRL market, Innsbrook Resort just so happens to be one of the venues in which KH Lee has proven to be most consistent. He’s finished top-30 in his first two appearances here and looked great two starts ago at the Cognizant Classic, where he finished T4.

VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: PROPS (2.5 UNITS)

Full Tournament Matchup: Keith Mitchell > Keegan Bradley

My Bet: -110

After riding with Keegan Bradley in each of the last two weeks in Florida, I’m officially ready to jump ship. Always a streaky player, Keegan has not shown the dominant approach gear we’re so used to seeing from him of late. Instead, it’s Keith Mitchell who enters this week looking the part as the more consistent ball-striker of the two, as Mitchell has gained strokes ball striking in six consecutive starts.

Removing his Runner-Up finish here in 2021, Keegan has just one other finish inside the top 50 here over six prior appearances.

Top-20 Finish: Keith Mitchell

My Bet: +210
Best Available Odds:

Many weeks, there’s one player who I find myself higher on than the market, and in those instances, I usually try to double down my exposure wherever possible. This week, I see too many paths for Mitchell to find success given his current form, trending long-iron play, long-term history putting on Bermuda, and elite par-5 scoring.

Top-20 Finish: Andrew Novak

My Bet: +400
Best Available Odds:

With three top-10 finishes over his last four starts, Novak is yet another player I’ve fixated on who checks the boxes of recent form, course history at Innisbrook Resort, and course profile fit for a venue that rewards consistency on approaches from beyond 175 yards.

ONE AND DONE

My Pick: Cameron Young

Sam Burns is a very logical and likely consensus chalk selection in OAD this week for those who still haven’t used him. Finding myself in a very large, Scottie Scheffler-sized hole in OAD three months in, this is a spot I want to get a little more contrarian in. I believe an emphasis on long-iron approaches and working tee shots in both directions off the tee makes this a sneaky great course fit for Cameron Young, and I am comfortable taking on the risk of him making his event debut this week.

If not Young, I would also consider playing Sam Burns, Xander Schauffele, or Keith Mitchell in OAD.

VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP: THE BETTING CARD

That’ll do it for this week’s PGA TOUR golf bets. Best of luck this week with your own Valspar Championship bets, and see you next Sunday for the Houston Open preview. For more, follow TheLines on Twitter.

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