2024 3M Open: Four Sleeper Picks For Fantasy Golf Contests

The penultimate stop on the PGA TOUR regular season schedule has brought us to Blaine, Minnesota, for the 2024 3M Open. Though we may typically expect a bit of a post-major hangover in the week following the British Open, it’s fair to assume all players in this field have come motivated to improve their standing down the final stretch of the FedEx Cup Playoff race. Last week’s sleepers article gave out Russell Henley from the bottom of the odds board in a close bid for his first career Major championship, so we’ll look to keep that momentum going into the 3M Open.
A wide array of players can contend at TPC Twin Cities. Premium ball striking is necessary to avoid the constant threat of water hazards, but these straightforward green complexes create plenty of opportunity to find value in those who may otherwise be held back by poor short game.
Below, we’ll look at potential 3M Open picks and dig in deep as we look for PGA TOUR sleepers in this week’s golf odds.
UNDERDOG GOLF FANTASY DRAFT CHEAT SHEET
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3M Open Underdog Fantasy Draft Rankings
Underdog snake drafts include 3M Open contests that strip away the complexity of traditional DFS lineup-making. John’s golf picks may provide valuable sleepers for your Underdog golf drafts. These rankings can also be applied to DraftKings and FanDuel golf DFS.
Tier 1
Tony Finau
Tier 2
Sam Burns
Sahith Theegala
Keith Mitchell
Tier 3
Luke Clanton
Keegan Bradley
Maverick McNealy
Tom Hoge
Akshay Bhatia
Tier 4
Nick Dunlap
Rico Hoey
Mark Hubbard
JJ Spaun
Michael Thorbjornsen
Taylor Pendrith
Tier 5
Chan Kim
Hayden Springer
Patton Kizzire
Mac Meissner
Neal Shipley
To identify “value” any given week on the PGA TOUR, I find it’s best first to understand the consensus key stat profile. Then, take a stance on the elements of the tournament that may go overlooked. At the 3M Open, Recent Form, Course History, and Birdies or Better Gained are consensus key areas factored into each player’s price. To exploit value, I’m looking to take a stance on the importance of ball striking first and foremost, as this has proven to be an event where middling putters can spike when they generate enough birdie opportunities.
Below, find my favorite value PGA golf Fantasy picks and longshots for the 2024 3M Open. Stats are pulled from the last 36 rounds unless otherwise noted.
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3M Open Course Specs
For a deeper dive into the course, read my 3M Open preview.
3M OPEN ODDS COMPARISON TABLE
If you want to add sportsbook bets to your golf DFS picks this week, compare odds below. Click to bet now.
Rico Hoey
The 3M Open is hardly a “prove it” tournament, but against the odds, it will be the most competitive field Hoey will face off against in the past month. Hoey has looked like one of the best players in the field, against weaker competition across the John Deere Classic, Rocket Mortgage Classic, ISCO Championship, and Barracuda Championship, with top-30 finishes in each and three top-10s over that span.
Hoey is a top-tier total driver, particularly with his driving distance, which has proven to be more beneficial than pure driving accuracy at the 3M Open. Though watered down under a stretch of easy scoring conditions, Hoey stands out statistically with top-10 ranks across SG: T2G, SG: OTT, Par-5 Scoring, and Comp Course History.
Chan Kim
The cookie-cutter profile I look for each year in a 3M Open value candidate is a consistent ball-striker with question marks around the green that may lead to mediocre recent results and overshadow otherwise encouraging form. In years past, 3M Open contenders like Sergio Garcia, Charl Schwartzel, Cameron Champ, and Scott Piercy fit this mold perfectly. The best example of that style of player this week is Chan Kim.
Kim has gained strokes in terms of SG: OTT and SG: APP in his last ten starts dating back to the Houston Open. Despite that run of hot form, a cold putter has kept him in check, with only two top-20 finishes. Historically, poor putters have managed to break through on these straightforward greens at TPC Twin Cities. That sets up perfectly for Chan Kim this week, as he ranks top three in SG: T2G and Comp Course History leading in.
Kevin Yu
Sergio Garcia’s performance at the 2021 3M Open still sticks with me as my one outright that should have been. He was available at a steep discount despite topping the field in SG: Ball Striking leading in. He went on to dominate from tee-to-green for the week, ranking No. 1 with over 13 strokes gained, but finished T25 because he lost seven strokes on the green. I haven’t gotten over it because, in the same week, Cameron Champ gained 15 more strokes putting and beat him by seven strokes.
From that aspect, Kevin Yu reminds me a lot of Champ and Sergio. All three are standouts off-the-tee, able to lean on their driving distance to generate ample wedge shots for birdie opportunities on an easier layout like TPC Twin Cities. Yu is the exact profile of player I’m looking for this week, as he ranks top-10 in both SG: OTT and SG: APP. His putting performances have not been pretty in 2024, but he’s not entirely lost on the greens, as he’s gained strokes putting in two of his last three starts. With three top-10 finishes this season, Yu is my favorite longshot outright option on the board this week.
Joel Dahmen
TPC Twin Cities is a fairly long course that has historically favored bombers. Still, plenty of plodders have kept themselves in contention, too, as Kevin Streelman demonstrated with his runner-up finish last year. That’s a good sign for a player like Dahmen, whose best career results have come on more positional venues. At TPC Twin Cities, accurate players who consistently play away from its many water hazards have found an edge, as double-bogeys await on many holes for bombers who play too aggressively.
Dahmen’s precise ball striking stands out in this field, as he’s one of just eight players to rank in the top-20 in terms of both SG: OTT and SG: APP. He’s shown some promise recently with two top-25 finishes over his last five starts, and while the putter has struggled to show signs of encouragement, this venue has been kind to other players who’ve entered with similar struggles leading in.
Shop the best odds at sports betting sites for PGA TOUR sleepers and more highly-touted players before betting, including for the top 10, top 20, etc. Best of luck if you choose to bet on these golf DFS picks!
GOLF DFS PLAYER POOL
With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool for golf DFS picks this week. Naturally, I’m also looking their way in the 2024 3M Open odds. I’ve broken the list down by projected pricing/odds tier for DraftKings.
