The Masters may be over, but the show goes on. All the PGA TOUR’s stars return to compete for the elevated $15M purse at the 2023 RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head, South Carolina. I was just in South Carolina earlier this week, perhaps the omen we need to land on another winner in this spot. Let’s get to my final RBC Heritage bets. Click the odds anywhere in this article to place RBC Heritage bets.
For a full breakdown of the tournament and course, visit my RBC Heritage preview.
HOW I BUILT MY RBC HERITAGE BETTING CARD
Usually the RBC Heritage has been a week to build out a longer card with exposure to veteran short course specialists. The removal of distance advantage from longer hitters leveled the playing field for more longshots to contend. With so many elite talents coming to Hilton Head this time around under new Designated Event status, I’ve opted to build a slightly tighter card with exposure to the best approach players. Particularly, I looked at those with proven results on comp positional courses.
In terms of unit allocations for my card this week, it’s back to business as usual for RBC Heritage bets.
- Outrights – 3U in to pay 24U each
- FRL – 0.5U in to pay out 10U+ each
- Props – 3U in to pay out 3U+ each
Click on any of the odds below for RBC Heritage bets and the best available prices across legal sportsbooks in your state.
RBC HERITAGE BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)
Cameron Young
My Bet: +2800
With driving distance being the biggest strength of Young’s game, Harbour Town’s positional layout is not the first place you would think suits his chances to pick up his first PGA TOUR win. And yet, his odds continue to get get shorter and shorter as one of the consensus most popular bets of the week. In reality, Young’s game is polished enough all around to give himself a chance to contend any given week on the PGA TOUR.
He finished one stroke outside of the playoff in his debut here last year after pacing the field with an 8-under first round lead. He continues to look sharp leading into this week with a T10 at the API, runner up finish at the WGC Dell Match Play (on another Pete Dye design), and T7 at The Masters over his last four starts. He’s immediately turned a corner on the greens since Paul Tesori hopped on the bag, and his prior experience with Webb Simpson around these ground should pay dividends for Young on a course that rewards a strategic approach.
Max Homa
My Bet: +3100
Homa gets a bit of a misunderstood reputation for being a California specialist. But he’s strung together plenty of high finishes on the east course throughout his career too, including a win in the Carolinas at the 2019 Well Fargo Championship. Whether we look over the last 24, 36, or 50 rounds, Homa has established himself as a consensus top-five player in this field in terms of total strokes gained. A win at the Farmers Insurance Open six starts ago continues to justify that he is up to the task of contending against the game’s best, even if the results in Majors have yet to materialize. There’s simply too much win equity with Homa to pass up on the 31-1 odds this week.
Justin Thomas
My Bet: +3300
I’m going to go ahead and assume this is the first time I’ve ever put a betting card together with multiple players at shorter odds than JT. My featured spotlight player of the week, I expected Thomas to drift to all-time low odds after his first career missed cut and new position outside the OWGR top 10. Maybe it’s just the friendly competition with 2022 RBC Heritage champ, Jordan Spieth, but I expect Thomas to be well rested and motivated to put himself back in the winners circle this week. Thomas thrives on less-than-driver courses that reward shot-shaping off the tee and, despite his lackluster finishes of late, he still ranks No. 1 in SG: ARG, which will come in handy for him around these tiny Pete Dye greens.
Si Woo Kim
My Bet: +8500
Si Woo Kim should always be a consideration on Pete Dye courses, especially short positional ones. He’s continued to demonstrate that this season with top-30 finishes at The AmEx and THE PLAYERS. Kim’s best career finish at the RBC Heritage was a playoff loss to Satoshi Kodaira in 2018, and with his mid-irons continuing to trend (No. 5 in Prox: 125-200), he’s well positioned to add on to his Sony Open win earlier this season.
Tom Hoge
My Bet: +10000
Anytime the No. 1 player in terms of SG: APP is available at triple digit odds on a positional course, that’s going to be an easy bet for me. The 2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am champ continues to shine on shorter layouts that do not penalize him for lack of distance off the tee. He set the course record two starts ago at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, so he’s proven he can score among the best players in the world on a similar layout.
Cam Davis
My Bet: +20000
The Presidents Cup selection from earlier this year fell from grace a bit ever since, but a T6 showing at THE PLAYERS last month flashed the upside potential we’ve always expected. With Davis, I’m always drawn to his fit on short, less-than-driver courses, as he ranks top-30 in Comp Course History and SG: Ball Striking on courses under 7,200 yards. With finishes of T3 and T25 in his first two RBC Heritage appearances, this seems to be the place to get him back on track.
RBC HERITAGE FIRST ROUND LEADER BETS (0.5 UNITS)
Russell Henley
My Bet: +6000
In a leaderboard crowded with elite household names Sunday at The Masters, Henley’s name was one of the only exceptions. He impressed with a T4 finish and earned himself entry to the 2024 Masters. He did so by leading the field in putting, but that’s actually an encouraging sign in this case, as we know Henley’s baseline from tee-to-green has been elite on these short, positional layouts.
Tom Hoge
My Bet: +8000
If he can set the course record at one positional Pete Dye layout a couple starts ago, then there’s no question Hoge has the ability to tap into that same magic from THE PLAYERS to go low at Harbour Town. He draws a favorable morning tee time and just needs to keep the ball in the fairway in order to set up the necessary birdie looks to pace the field.
Seamus Power
My Bet: +9000
Power has only made the trip to Hilton Head once before, but it was an impressive showing, finishing T6 in 2019. He’s proven at his best on short courses, already piling up three top-15 finishes on comp courses this season between El Camaleon, Pebble Beach, and Sea Island.
Cam Davis
My Bet: +9000
Davis is an aggressive player who likes to fire at pins and, like Hoge, draws a slightly favorable morning tee time when the greens will be most soft and receptive. His course history has shown he knows how to navigate these grounds, and he’s recently flashed the upside to catch a streaky putter, which is needed to set the pace on Thursdays.
Aaron Rai
My Bet: +11000
I’m unofficially slotting in Aaron Rai on a weekly basis in an audition role to replace Sebastian Munoz as our staple FRL play. He’s gotten off to a hot start on plenty of occasions already this season and a tight, short, positional layout is perfectly suited to his game.
RBC HERITAGE PROPS (3 UNITS)
Top-40 Finish: Si Woo Kim
My Bet: +100
I made the mistake of backing Si Woo Kim top 20 at the Valero Texas Open while knowing that his consistent play has not yielded many finishes inside the top 20 to date. Since the Houston Open, however, he’s finished top 40 in nine of his last 10 starts, so we’ll dial this back to a more conservative market, given the combination of recent form and course history here.
Top-40 Finish: Tyler Duncan
My Bet: +200
This is a bet that would have likely been placed as a top 20 if the field had not gotten a boost as an elevated event. With a little extra depth in Hilton Head, I still like Duncan’s chances at a top-40 finish. He was T12 at this event last year and his consistent ball striking has yielded a pair of top-3 finishes over his last five starts.
Top-20 Finish: Cam Davis
My Bet: +600
On the basis of course history alone, I like the odds here on a talented player who’s finished T25 and T3 in his first two career appearances at Harbour Town. He cited an illness as the reason for his poor stretch of play prior to THE PLAYERS and, if that’s true, this is a great discount on the Aussie.
ONE AND DONE
My Pick: Justin Thomas
I feel very good about Justin Thomas as a OAD play this week. With a $15M purse on the line, this is a week to use one of the elite players left at your disposal in OAD. Unlike the other elites in this field (Rahm, Scheffler, Cantlay, Xander, Morikawa, Homa, Finau), Thomas “escaped” a grueling weekend at The Masters and should be more rested (both emotionally and physically). His tee-to-green form is still at his standard, so if he can adjust the putting issues like Spieth here in 2022, he has a clear path to contention.
If not JT, I would also consider Cameron Young, Matt Fitzpatrick, or Shane Lowry as OAD picks.
RBC HERITAGE: THE BETTING CARD
That’ll do it for this week’s RBC Heritage bets. Best of luck this week with your own RBC Heritage bets, and see you next week for the Zurich Classic! For more, follow TheLines on Twitter.
RBC HERITAGE BETS: ODDS TO WIN
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