The 2023 Masters is playing catch-up with the third round suspended just after 3 p.m. and the entire field still on the course. After threatening weather and trees falling caused play to end early on Friday with the afternoon wave still on the course, it was heavy rains that ruined the chances of a full round on Saturday. Water started collecting on greens with the final pairing just on the 7th hole of their third rounds. The Masters odds board currently shows a two-man race.
With wet conditions and moderate winds, the third round was playing very difficult when play was halted. Conditions are expected to be a bit easier when they head back out for the final round.
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Masters Second-Round Stats and Thoughts
Jon Rahm did well on Saturday morning to handle very difficult conditions and post a second-round 69 to pull within two shots of Brooks Koepka (-12) at 10 under. He was the only player to manage any type of run at Koepka in the afternoon wave, as Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland both posted 6 under.
Once all of the players teed off on Saturday, things were evened out as every player had to navigate through heavy rain and moderate winds at Augusta National. The leading groups weren’t even done with their front nines when play was suspended from the collecting water. Koepka handled the conditions nicely through six holes as he sits 1 under for his round and four shots ahead of Rahm.
With Sam Bennett struggling for the day at 6 under for the tournament, the Masters has started to look like a two-man race, but 30 holes is a lot of golf in one day. If Koepka and Rahm were to come back to the field, it’d be a wide open Masters with 16 players currently at 3 under or better. Unfortunately for the field, Koepka and Rahm tend to stay out of trouble when they need to.
Play resumes at 8:30 a.m. on Sunday. Final-round tee times should begin at 12:30 p.m. in pairings with finish times prepared to remain as previously planned.
Will Koepka fall back to the field?
Brooks Koepka quickly expanded his two-shot lead on Jon Rahm in the third round with a birdie on the second hole and steady play otherwise. He does have a tough par putt on the seventh hole to keep that four-shot lead over Rahm, while Rahm has a look at birdie. With such a large gap between Koepka and most of the contenders, there’s a ton of pressure for him to maintain pace and not let the field back in it. If he were to drop three or four shots before the final round begins, it would be a completely different Masters.
But for the field, play suspending on Saturday was the worst case. With conditions expected to be a bit easier on Sunday, it’s much less likely for Koepka and Rahm to fall back enough shots to get other guys involved.
Looking at the stats, Koepka wasn’t as sharp through his six holes on Saturday. He lost 0.38 strokes off the tee and 0.06 shots on approach. That came after he gained more than 10 shots with his ball striking in the first two rounds. But with such a large lead, Koepka doesn’t have to do much with his ball striking to stay in control. He’s as good as anyone at playing with a lead in a major championship and not succumbing to the pressure. Koepka also gained 1.60 strokes with the putter in those six holes on Saturday, which is concerning for the field. My bet is on him continuing to control the tournament and forcing miraculous play from someone else.
Can Anyone Make a Run at Koepka and Rahm?
There are currently 20 players at 2 under or better for the tournament and potentially within 10 shots of Koepka after his par putt on seven. It’s a big margin, but it’s possible if the four-time major champion struggles early on Sunday with 30 holes left to play. Of those 20 players, 11 have won a major championship. It’s a capable group with big names, so it feels likely we at least get a charge from a couple of them. Masters odds shows just how tightly packed the group under the top is.
Looking at the numbers from the third round, Matthew Fitzpatrick stands out as someone who could post a solid number and see what happens before his final-round tee time. The U.S. Open champion is 3 under through 11 holes in his third round and 5 under overall. Unlike the leaders, Fitzpatrick played the tough stretch at the turn and can now attack the Par 5s.
Fitzpatrick has already gained 1.82 strokes on approach in his round along with a strong 0.82 off the tee. The putter is also hot with 1.55 strokes gained. He’s likely eyeing around 8 under as a goal with the hopes that he’ll be within four shots before the fourth round begins.
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LIV Golf Players at the Masters
Eighteen LIV Golf players teed it up at the Masters this year. This is the first time since the Open Championship in July that LIV players have played in the same tournament as PGA TOUR players in the United States. Here’s where some of them stand during the third round.
Top Three LIV Golf Players During Third Round
- Brooks Koepka -13 thru 6 (1)
- Phil Mickelson -4 thru 9, Joaquin Niemann -4 thru 9 (T8)
- Patrick Reed -2 thru 10 (T17)
Of the 18 LIV players, 12 of them made the cutline of 3 over. Kevin Na withdrew after nine holes and Louis Oosthuizen withdrew before play resumed on Saturday, while Bubba Watson, Jason Kokrak, Bryson DeChambeau and Sergio Garcia were notable names to struggle and miss the cut.
Live Masters Bets to Consider
Without Koepka/Rahm Markets: Matt Fitzpatrick +650, Russell Henley +3000
Some sites are beginning to offer markets without Koepka and Rahm, meaning you’re essentially betting on who will finish 3rd if Koepka and Rahm continue their dominance. This is probably the best bet to look at right now with a crowded leaderboard and the Masters odds board showing the top two as such heavy favorites.
My reasoning for Matt Fitzpatrick is already above. His struggles with injury this year brought him into the week overlooked. The play seems to be back, and he’s striking it as well as anyone during his third round so far. At 5 under, only the amateur Sam Bennett is currently ahead of him in this market.
Russell Henley is also playing nicely this week. He has some major experience now and is one of the top iron players in the world at his best. If he can make a medium-range par putt on 10 to start his day on Sunday, he sits at 4 under and in a great spot to post a number heading into the final round. Henley is gaining in all four categories for the week but has yet to have that upside performance with the irons that could really propel him up the leaderboard. These are huge odds for someone right in the mix to finish third.
Masters Live In-Tournament Odds
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