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March 27, 2019

People Are Actually Betting The Baltimore Orioles To Win The World Series At 2000/1 Odds

Chops March 27, 2019
Orioles World Series

Opening Day of the baseball season is Thursday.

The Baltimore Orioles will not win the 2019 World Series. They are currently priced at anywhere from 100-1 to 2000-1 odds to do so, and even that is generous.

This is not stopping a surprising amount of action across the country on Orioles futures.

Why all of the Orioles action?

The Orioles will not be a good team this year. Or next year. Probably not the year after that either. They’re in a division with the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox. While they last won the division in 2014 (only five years ago!), they only won 47 games last year. Since World War II ended, only four teams have had a worse record than Baltimore last year.

Vegas and advanced analytics peg the Orioles around 59 wins.

Keith Law at ESPN Insider predicts the Orioles are a 56-win team (!!) and writes:

Baltimore will be nigh unwatchable this year, with a pitching staff that will probably be the worst in baseball, compounded by a tough schedule in a deep division.

Yet!

At William Hill sportsbooks in Nevada, New Jersey and West Virginia, there have been more bets on the Orioles to win the World Series than 10 other teams, including a $500 wager on Baltimore placed Monday at 1,000-1 odds.

At the Hollywood Casino at Charles Town Races in West Virginia, 39 futures bets have been placed on the Orioles.

And!

Last season, if you bet $100 on the Orioles in each game, you ended up down $5,188. It was the worst money-line result for any team in the past 14 years, according to sports betting database BetLabSports.com.

So why all of the action? People love betting longshots.

Where would this rank in the history of longshots?

A year ago, TheLines covered the 10 biggest long shots in gambling history. Going apples-to-apples at 2000-1, the Orioles would be in rarefied air.

For comparison’s sake, the 2015-16 Leicester City team who won the Premier League at 5000-1 were criminally undervalued. They actually had top-level talent (N’Golo Kanté, Riyad Mahrez, Jamie Vardy) that the Orioles do not. For as sophisticated as the English soccer betting market is, that 5000-1 is shockingly long in hindsight.

In reality, the best comparable is the “do you believe in miracles?” 1980 US Hockey team. While only a 1000-1 long shot, they were as improbable of a champion as any team in sports history. That’s more in line with the Orioles in 2019. It would be nothing short of a miracle to see this roster hoist this trophy.

2019 MLB futures odds in NJ

World Series Winner

Odds Updated 4/13

Houston
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+550
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+550
LA Dodgers
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+650
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+550
NY Yankees
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+650
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+550
Boston
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+900
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+900
Philadelphia
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+900
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+900
Milwaukee
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+1600
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+1000
Cleveland
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+1600
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+1800
St. Louis
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+1600
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+2200
Washington
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+1600
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+2400
NY Mets
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+1800
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+1800
Atlanta
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+2000
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+2100
Tampa Bay
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+2000
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+2300
Chicago Cubs
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+2200
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+2800
Seattle
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+3300
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+3700
Oakland
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+4000
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+5000
Minnesota
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+4000
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+4400
San Diego
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+4000
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+5000
Colorado
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+5000
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+5000
LA Angels
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+6600
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+10000
Arizona
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+6600
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+7500
Cincinnati
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+8000
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+10000
Pittsburgh
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+8000
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+5900
San Francisco
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+15000
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+10000
Detroit
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+15000
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+10000
Texas
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+20000
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+10000
Chicago WS
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+25000
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+10000
Toronto
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+25000
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+10000
Kansas City
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+50000
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+10000
Miami
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+50000
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+10000
Baltimore
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+40000
Bet now
+10000

Sheridan: Longshots Like Pistons And Hornets Are Good Bets To Win NBA Eastern Conference

Avatar March 27, 2019
NBA Eastern Conference

You’d have to be crazy to bet on the Miami Heat, Charlotte Hornets, Detroit Pistons and/or Orlando Magic to win the NBA Eastern Conference, correct?

Well, Milwaukee Bucks and Toronto Raptors fans would say so … but no team is a lock in late March … and hopes can get dashed in an instant, as any Portland Trail Blazers fan could tell you after what we saw with Jusuf Nurkic two nights ago.

The fact of the matter is this: The Bucks are somewhat exposed because of injuries to Malcolm Brogdon and Nikola Mirotic, and as good of a job as coach Mike Budenholzer has done, there are quite a few new members of this year’s Bucks team compared to last year’s Bucks team … and they have not yet been tested as a unit (although that certainly was not the case Tuesday night vs. Houston.)

Toronto is another story. The Raptors went into the playoffs with high hopes a year ago with Duane Casey as the Coach of the Year, but Masai Ujiri blew up the team and fired the coach after they flamed out in the second round against LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers in a four-game sweep.

The team is whole again and recently added Jodie Meeks, but Kawhi Leonard has not played a postseason game in two seasons … and his future remains undetermined given his upcoming unrestricted free agent status.

DraftKings Sportsbook is listing the Magic, Heat and Hornets at 80-1 to win the Eastern Conference title; and the Pistons are sitting at 66-1.

We will spare you the odds of any of those outliers winning the NBA championship, because that just ain’t going to happen. (Although DraftKings has those odds up if you want to go there).

But the East?

Here’s what’s up:

Detroit Pistons (+6600)

The Pistons have a 95 percent chance of making the postseason, according to FiveThirtyEight.com, with a fairly decent schedule that includes games vs. Orlando and Portland, a back-to-back with the Pacers, at Oklahoma City, then home for the Thunder, Hornets and Grizzlies before finishing up at New York.

They went only 1-4 on their recent five-game road trip, but Wayne Ellington was a nice replacement for Reggie Bullock and Ish Smith is a game-changer in terms of pace of play when he subs out Reggie Bullock. Andre Drummond is a 20-20 guy who could become a 30-30 guy depending on the playoff matchup. (If Detroit plays Milwaukee, for example, Brook Lopez will not be allowed to let Giannis handle the bulk of the rebounding chores.)

Orlando Magic (+8000)

The Magic have a 61 percent chance of making the playoffs according to FiveThirtyEight.com, and their final seven games are at Detroit, at Indiana, at Toronto, home for the Knicks and Hawks, then at Boston and at Orlando. They are taking a six-game winning streak into Thursday night’s game at Detroit, and they have a dominant player in Nikola Vucevic if he is matched up against an inexperienced and/or weak center. Insert your own Marc Gasol/Brook Lopez joke here.

Vucevic himself boldly predicted that the Magic were only one decent winning streak away from being a playoff team, and he may just end up being right. Momentum is a big thing to carry into the postseason, and Orlando certainly has it is we get set to wrap up the month of March.

Get $20 Of Free Play at DraftKings!

Miami Heat (+8000)

The Heat are a certainty to do one thing well: Run Erik Spoelstra’s system. The guy is probably the most underrated guy in the NBA coaching ranks (apologies to Luke Walton), and Goran Dragic and Co. are a sneaky 9-4 thus far in the month of March including road wins over the Thunder and Spurs.

Yes, this is shaping to be not much more than a farewell tour season for Dwyane Wade, but Miami has quite a two-headed monster at center with Bam Adebayo and Hassan Whiteside, and there are seven players averaging double figures. As we saw last year in Game 2 of the first round against Philadelphia, Wade can still summon his younger self in big moments. So even though they are sub-.500 now, if the brackets work in their favor … you never know.

Charlotte Hornets (+8000)

The Hornets are another quandary. Nobody aside from Michael Jordan and UConn fans (nostalgic for the days of Kemba Walker) pays all that much attention to them, but Walker is the upcoming unrestricted free agent who consistently gets left off every “Best Free Agents Out There” list, and Frank Kaminsky is making himself relevant for the first time since he was at the University of Wisconsin.

Everybody seems to bring their “B” game when going up against these guys, most recently evidenced by the Spurs getting knocked off as James Borrego cold-heartedly left Tony Parker on the bench for the entire game. They have strung together four straight wins, the latter three coming against Boston, Toronto and San Antonio, and their chances of moving up to sixth to get a shot at the struggling Celtics or Sixers will largely depend on how they do on their upcoming West Coast trip to play the Lakers, Warriors, Jazz and Pelicans.

Is the East really wide open?

The bottom line is this when looking at the Eastern Conference and whether an outlier team will win: The Bucks are unproven; the Raptors are unproven; the Sixers and Celtics have locker room issues; the Nets are probably not getting out of the first round after failing to make a deal at the deadline; and the Pacers are sneaky good but are getting nowhere near the production from Wes Mathews that they were getting from Victor Oladipo.

If there ever was a year when an outlier with long odds was worth a flyer at 66-1 or 80-1 odds, this may be that year.

Chris Sheridan is a veteran NBA writer who has worked for The Associated Press, ESPN, NJ.com, GetMoreSports.com, Heavy.com and The New York Daily News. This is his debut column for TheLines.com. Follow him on Twitter @sheridanhoops

Tennessee Proposed A Gambling Ban For Sundays And Holidays And It’s The Most Southern Thing Ever

Chops March 27, 2019
Tennessee Sports Betting

Tennessee is one of many states with proposed sports betting legislation in the works. The latest iteration of their bi-partisan Senate bill, SB-16, is currently facing bi-partisan opposition from phony pretend bible-thumping morally righteous politicians.

This bill would allow for online sports betting only.

And only Monday through Saturday. Well, kind of on Sundays, but only certain times. And not on holidays either.

Facepalm Sunday

I grew up in the South. The South (some would argue) has an antiquated view on certain things. From when and where you can buy alcohol to when stores can open on Sunday. The South really, really holds Sunday sacred. For church. And for the NFL.

The fact that a southern politician would attempt to put religious-based sanctions on sports betting isn’t surprising. What is surprising is this Tennessee rep didn’t go even more draconian.  Why not require geo-fencing around churches? I’m super disappointed in you, Tennessee. Sure, your proposed bans are ridiculous, but you are nowhere near your lofty standards. Step. It. Up.

For more on Tennessee’s sports betting legislation, check out Legal Sports Report.

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