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November 30, 2018

NFL Week 14 Look-Ahead Lines And Betting Market Moves For Week 13

FairwayJay November 30, 2018
NFL Week 14

The FanDuel Sportsbook in New Jersey and the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas release NFL advance look-ahead lines, and Week 14 features a few key divisional matchups.

The NFL has backloaded the second half of the regular season schedule with more meaningful division games, and those division duels will have much of the betting action while determining which teams reach the playoffs and playoff positioning and seeding. Review the NFL Week 14 look-ahead lines below and start preparing to watch and wager on some key division games and prime time games with playoff contenders.

Adjusting to market moves

The Saints look-ahead line (-7.5) for Week 13 did not move, but bettors that sided with the streaking Saints or got tricky with a teaser bet on New Orleans found out the hard way that riding hot streaks or paying a price on the betting line can have consequences. Will the Cowboys 13-10 upset of the Saints on Thursday kickoff more upsets in Week 13? There are a total of seven road favorites in Week 13 action, and much of the betting action is on those road favorites, which is often a lower-percentage play from a betting perspective.

We continue to see some of the big adjustments in the betting lines based on the previous week’s results, and while more favorites have continued to cover over the past month, perhaps the Cowboys cashing in will be the game that turns the tide heading into December. As mentioned in last week’s look ahead lines article, “Don’t expect that to continue into December … a correction is likely in order.” That despite many teams being eliminated from the playoffs while taking more points as underdogs. The contrary nature of the NFL produces surprising results like the Cowboys over the Saints, and the sportsbooks cashed in on Dallas knowing that many bettors continue to ride the hot teams like the Saints and other winning teams.

Week 13 look-ahead lines and major moves

Many bettors react more to recent results and are often unwilling to bet on bad teams. Those teams will take fewer bets and less betting action in Week 13: Cowboys (+7.5), Jaguars (+4), Buccaneers (+3.5), NY Giants (+4), Bengals (+5), Lions (+10), Raiders (+15), 49ers (+10) and Vikings (+5). All but Minnesota and Dallas are losing teams, and the Vikings and Cowboys play the powerful Patriots and Saints, which many public bettors like to support.

According to the Action Network and their betting platform partner Sports Insights, which tracks public betting trends from consensus sportsbooks, those underdogs listed above are all taking less than 37% of the bets. So the percentage of bets on the public favorites are at least two out of every three side bets wagered.

For the Week 13 games on Sunday, Dec. 2, these are the games where there was at least a two-point difference from the look-ahead line in Las Vegas or New Jersey and current line: Notice the huge point spread swing from Cincinnati a 2.5-point favorite vs Denver to now the Bengals a 5.5-point home underdog to the Broncos.

  • Indianapolis at Jacksonville (IND -1.5, FanDuel) – Current line Colts -4
  • Buffalo at Miami (MIA -6, FanDuel) – Current line Dolphins -3.5
  • Denver at Cincinnati (CIN -2.5, SuperBook) – Current line Broncos -5.5
  • LA Rams at Detroit (LAR -7, SuperBook) – Current line Rams -10
  • Arizona at Green Bay (GB -11.5, SuperBook) – Current line Packers -14
  • NY Jets at Tennessee (TEN -5.5, FanDuel) – Current line Titans -8
  • San Francisco at Seattle (SEA -7.5, SuperBook) – Current line Seahawks -10

The major adjustments and market moves are against the losing teams again except for the Dolphins and Bills game, which had Miami too high on the look-ahead line but last week’s Bills win has dropped that line. The Dolphins have also lost four of their last five games with their only win over the bottom-feeding New York Jets.

The sportsbooks understand the need to adjust with most bettors unwilling to bet on the losing teams. Value will be available the rest of the year on many underdogs, like the Cowboys who beat the streaking Saints, and even the worst teams.

Scoring is at a record high 48.0 points per game this season, but follow the weather more closely at this time of year. Try to anticipate both side and totals moves in advance as potential poor weather conditions as game day nears.

NFL Week 14 look-ahead betting lines

The Week 14 NFL look ahead lines show seven division games (*) with some key games of interest impacting playoff positioning and teams pushing for the playoffs (Indianapolis at Houston and Philadelphia at Dallas). The two prime time games lead the TV ratings and betting action. Sunday night the LA Rams play at Chicago with both teams in first place, and Monday night’s feature are two teams leading the NFC wild-card chase with Minnesota at Seattle.

GameWestgate LineFanDuel Line
Jacksonville at Tennessee TEN -6TEN -5.5
Baltimore at Kansas CityKC -9.5 KC -8.5
New England at Miami NE -10NE -7.5
New Orleans at Tampa Bay NO -10.5NO -9
New York Jets at Buffalo BUF -3BUF -3
Carolina at ClevelandCLE -1CAR -1.5
Indianapolis at Houston HOU -3 (-120)HOU -3
NY Giants at Washington WASH -3 (+100)WASH -3
Atlanta at Green BayGB -7.5GB -6
Cincinnati at LA ChargersLAC -15.5LAC -13
Denver at San FranciscoDEN -4.5DEN -4
Pittsburgh at OaklandPIT -12.5PIT -11
Philadelphia at Dallas DAL -3.5 (+100)DAL -3
Detroit at ArizonaDET -3 (-120)DET -3.5
LA Rams at ChicagoLAR -3.5LAR -3
Minnesota at SeattleSEA -3 (+100)SEA -3

NFL Week 13 Lines: Spreads, Totals and NJ Betting Guide

Marco Cerino November 30, 2018
NFL Week 13 Lines

We start the first of five December weekends of NFL action here in Week 13. That’s right, only five weeks remain in the regular season!

As of now, nothing has been decided. Around 20 teams are still fighting for the 12 playoff spots. Let’s take an early look at the Week 13 lines at New Jersey sportsbooks.

(Odds updated 11/30/18)

 DraftKingsBetStarsFanDuel888sportSugarHouse
New Orleans
Dallas
-7.5
53
-7.5
53
-7
52.5
-7.5
53
-7.5
53
Arizona
Green Bay
44.5
-13.5
44.5
-14
44.5
-14
44.5
-13.5
44.5
-13.5
Baltimore
Atlanta
48.5
-1.5
48.5
-1.5
49
-1
48.5
-1.5
48.5
-1.5
Buffalo
Miami
40
-3.5
40
-3.5
40
-3.5
40
-3.5
40
-3.5
Carolina
Tampa Bay
-3.5
55.5
-3.5
55
-3.5
55
-3.5
55.5
-3.5
55.5
Chicago
NY Giants
-4.5
N/A
-3.5
44.5
-3.5
44.5
-4.5
N/A
-4.5
N/A
Cleveland
Houston
48
-6
47.5
-5.5
48
-5.5
48
-6
48
-6
Denver
Cincinnati
-4.5
43.5
-5
44
-4.5
44
-4.5
43.5
-4.5
43.5
Indianapolis
Jacksonville
-4.5
47.5
-4
47
-4
47.5
-4.5
47.5
-4.5
47.5
LA Rams
Detroit
-9.5
54.5
-10
54.5
-10
54.5
-9.5
54.5
-9.5
54.5
Kansas City
Oakland
-14.5
55.5
-15
55
-15.5
55.5
-14.5
55.5
-14.5
55.5
NY Jets
Tennessee
40.5
-7.5
40.5
-8.5
40.5
-8
40.5
-7.5
40.5
-7.5
Minnesota
New England
48.5
-5
49.5
-5
48.5
-5.5
48.5
-5
48.5
-5
San Francisco
Seattle
46
-9.5
46
-10
45.5
-10
46
-9.5
46
-9.5
LA Chargers
Pittsburgh
51.5
-3.5
51.5
-3.5
52
-3.5
51.5
-3.5
51.5
-3.5
Washington
Philadelphia
45
-6
45
-6.5
45
-6
45
-6
45
-6

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Week 13 betting breakdown

Saints (-7) at Cowboys: Drew Brees enters 5-3 against Dallas. He can clinch the NFC South with a win and Panthers loss this week. Bettors could find some early value on the Cowboys at FanDuel, while BetStars give a half-point to the under on Monday.

Cardinals at Packers (-14): FanDuel was the only book with a line on this game as of Monday morning. When was the last time the Cardinals won in Wisconsin? It was 1949 when the franchise was in Chicago.

Ravens (-2.5)  at Falcons: Baltimore has managed to keep its neck in front of the crowded race for the last AFC Wild Card slot. The teams have split the previous four games in the rivalry. Initially, only FanDuel had this game on the board Monday as we await the status of Joe Flacco. DraftKings opened the game at BAL -2.5.

Bills at Dolphins (-6): Buffalo swept the two December matchups last season, defeating Jay Cutler. The last three seasons have seen sweeps in this rivalry, with the Bills taking both in 2015 as well.

Panthers (-3.5) at Buccaneers: Carolina has won three straight and nine of 11 in against their division rivals. Keep an eye on this one all week as it could potentially move on and off that key number at different books.

Browns at Texans (-6): Houston has won the last four against Cleveland. This could be a value game between two hot teams after the Monday night game. There’s some disparity at the NJ operators early in the week.

Broncos at Bengals (-1.5): Two big upsets have put Denver in the 5-6 bunch chasing the last playoff spot. FanDuel was the only book offering this game on Monday as Andy Dalton’s status remained unknown.

Colts (-3.5) at Jaguars: Indy has won the last three in Jacksonville. DraftKings, PlaySugarHouse and 888Sport offered some value to the under at open.

Rams (-9.5) at Lions: To clinch the NFC West, the Rams need to win in Detroit for the first time since 2009. FanDuel offered some value on the home team at open.

Chiefs (-15) at Raiders: The Chiefs, coming off a bye, are 6-1 in the last seven against their rivals. There was some value to grab on Monday: DraftKings and PlaySugarHouse gave a half-point to the Chiefs, while FanDuel gives a half-point to Oakland.

Jets at Titans (-7): The Jets have won two straight in this series, but Tennessee has won two of the last three at home. The lines could jump in this game one they’re posted: William Hill was the only book to list this on Monday at TEN -9.5.

Vikings at Patriots (-4.5): Minnesota’s win over Green Bay slots them back in the Wild Card, while New England sits second in the AFC. Tom Brady won the only match-up against Kirk Cousins in 2015 when Cousins played in Washington.

49ers at Seahawks (-10): Seattle is the first team currently on the outside of the NFC Wild Card race, but they’ve got time to sort through the chaos. The Hawks have won the last eight against San Francisco.

Chargers at Steelers (-3.5): Pittsburgh has won eight of the last 10 regular season games against San Diego. This meeting is a big one for two playoff contenders.

Redskins at Eagles (-6.5): This feels like an eliminator for the NFC East title. Philly swept last year, while Washington took both in 2016. Watch this line as the injury reports come out during the week.