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November 15, 2018

NFL Week 12 Look-Ahead Lines And Betting Market Moves For Week 11

FairwayJay November 15, 2018
Week 12 look ahead lines

The FanDuel Sportsbook in New Jersey and the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas in release NFL advance look-ahead lines, and Week 12 brings the much anticipated Thanksgiving slate of games. Three games will kick off the turkey day treat, with the two annual games in Detroit and Dallas, plus the added game in New Orleans. All three contests are division games with the Bears tackling the Lions, Redskins’ rivalry rematch against the Cowboys, followed by the late game Falcons and Saints.

Minnesota will play a second straight Sunday night prime time division game in Week 12 as the Vikings and Packers settle the score from a Week 2 tie in Green Bay. The NFL has backloaded the second half of the regular season schedule with more meaningful division games, and the Monday night game is another key contest that could be for first place pending Week 11 results as the Houston Texans host the Tennessee Titans. Houston looks to even the score after the Titans won the Week 2 matchup 20-17.

Adjusting to market moves

Following the public’s big results in Week 9 when the top six favorites won and covered to bury the sportsbooks in the worst week of the year for the house, many of those bettors gave back some money in Week 10. The sportsbooks reacted to the Week 9 results and recent run by favorites by ‘teasing’ bettors with some road favorites of less than a touchdown against the bottom teams.

The lines were even bet up on those favorites by game day, but the Titans (+7) pounded the Patriots at home 34-10 and the Browns (+6) did the same to the Falcons as a home underdog beating Atlanta 28-16. When the Bills (+7) upset the Jets in New York with a one-sided rout 41-10 and the Redskins (+3) beat the Bucs in Tampa 16-3, the early afternoon damage was done. Many bettors did cash in big on the Saints (-6), who buried the Bengals 51-10 in Cincinnati. The Packers (-12) were also bet up hard from -10 and Green Bay sunk the Dolphins 31-12.

But the sportsbooks beat most bettors again on the two primetime games to finish Week 10 when the Cowboys (+8) upset the Eagles in Philadelphia with a flood of money pouring in on the Eagles, and then on Monday night the NY Giants (+3) scored a late touchdown to beat the 49ers in San Francisco 27-23.

With many bettors and the public following the market moves and adjustments from the Week 10 look-ahead lines to the current lines, it turned out to be a losing week for most bettors.

Despite some of the lessons learned from the contrary nature and often surprising results in the NFL, many bettors will continue to bet on the winning teams and against the losing teams the rest of the season.

If it were only that easy.

Week 11 look-ahead lines and major moves

With many bettors reacting to recent results and unwilling to bet on bad teams, these teams will take the fewest bets and least betting action in Week 11: Lions (+4), Bengals (+3.5), Redskins (+3), Broncos (+7) and Jaguars (+5).

For the Week 11 games on Sunday, Nov. 18, these are the games where there was at least a 2-point difference from the look-ahead line in Las Vegas or New Jersey and current line:

  • Carolina at Detroit (-1.5, FanDuel) – Current line Panthers -3.5 (-115)
  • Houston at Washington (PK, SuperBook) – Current line Texans -3
  • Pittsburgh at Jacksonville (-3, SuperBook) – Current line Steelers -5.5
  • Washington at Tampa Bay (PK, SuperBook) – Current line Buccaneers -3

There will be no shortage or betting action on the most anticipated Monday night game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams on November 19. The change of venue from Mexico City to Los Angeles impacted the betting and odds, and the sportsbooks had to void and refund a majority of the initial bets on the game with the venue change but re-opened the action with the Rams a 3.5-point favorite at most locations and an over/under of 63.5 points – still an NFL record after the total initially opened at 64 with the game scheduled in Mexico. The game has been moved from Mexico City to Los Angeles, but the Rams are practicing all week in Colorado Springs with the wildfires in LA and surrounding communities causing much disruption, displacement, and devastation to so many people and properties.

NFL Week 12 look-ahead betting lines

Thanksgiving week is always one of the most fun and festive weeks of the season, as families and friends enjoy their holiday time together while feasting on fantastic food and watching football. Expanded coverage includes three NFL games on Thanksgiving Day. Friday and Saturday is more football with some of the biggest college football rivalry games of the year and another big betting event on Friday, Nov. 23 when Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods tee it up at Shadow Creek Golf Course in Las Vegas in a winner-take-all $9 million 18-hole match play event. Unfortunately, it’s pay-per-view TV on Turner Sports, and more prop bets would enhance the betting and handle. Woods is a -210 favorite to beat Mickelson (+175).

More pro football follows on Sunday and Monday. The Week 12 NFL look ahead-lines show some key games of interest.

GameWestgate LineFanDuel Line
Chicago at Detroit (Thurs)CHI -3.5CHI -4
Washington at Dallas (Thurs)DAL -5DAL -4.5
Atlanta at New Orleans (Thurs)NO -10.5NO -7.5
Cleveland at CincinnatiCIN -3.5CIN -4.5
San Francisco at Tampa BayTB -5TB -4.5
Jacksonville at BuffaloJAX -4JAX -3
Oakland at BaltimoreOFFOFF
Seattle at CarolinaCAR -4.5CAR -3.5
New England at NY JetsNE -8NE -7
NY Giants at PhiladelphiaPHI -9.5PHI -7
Arizona at LA ChargersLAC -13 LAC -10.5
Miami at IndianapolisOFFIND -5.5
Pittsburgh at DenverPIT -6PIT -3.5
Green Bay at Minnesota MIN -4MIN -3.5
Tennessee at Houston (Mon)HOU -4HOU -3