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October 28, 2018

World Series Betting: Game 5 Odds And Props At NJ Sportsbooks

Grant Lucas October 28, 2018
Game 5 betting

Chavez Ravine takes on a desperate, perhaps even somber, environment for Game 5 of the World Series on Sunday night.

With its Los Angeles Dodgers fighting for their lives against the Boston Red Sox, trailing 3-1 in the series, the Blue Crew fanbase holds onto slim hope for the Dodgers’ first world championship in 30 years. Heck, even the dang Angels have won a title in that time. Ouch.

Once again, a Boston pinch-hitter entered the nightmares of LA fans, like Freddy Krueger in a Sox hat. Mitch Moreland inconceivably connected for a three-run homer in the top of the seventh inning, his first dinger since Aug. 22, to cut a four-run Dodgers lead to one. Steve Pearce added his own name to LA’s Mount Hauntmore by blasting a game-tying homer in the eighth inning, then smacked a two-out, three-run double that capped a five-run ninth inning for Boston to build a 9-4 advantage.

Pearce’s timely hitting proved game-winning, as the Dodgers’ Kike Hernandez belted a two-run homer in the home half of the ninth, finalizing LA’s 9-6 loss.

Only six teams in Fall Classic history have rallied from a 3-1 series deficit. Fortunately, recent history leaves some optimism for the Dodgers, as the Chicago Cubs stormed back to beat the Cleveland Indians in 2016.

That said, of the 35 teams to lead 3-1 in the World Series, 18 clinched the title in Game 5. There’s the oil to hope’s water.

Onward to glory

While LA manager Dave Roberts has attempted to use the same analytical approach that helped the Dodgers reach the World Series for the second straight year, Boston has relied on its clutch hitting, its young talent, the gut-feeling decision-making of manager Alex Cora.

As a result, the Red Sox, despite a heart-wrenching 18-inning loss in Game 3, have positioned themselves for a fourth league championship since 2004. Rightly so, Boston, in the New Jersey sports betting market, has become a bigger favorite than Kirk Gibson at Dodger Stadium.

And with its core of talent, this could only be just the beginning of a Boston dynasty (again).

SportsbookBostonLA Dodgers
DraftKings-1430+800
BetStars1/1215/2
FanDuel-900+800
SugarHouse-1430+800
888sport-1430+800
Caesars-1200+750
William Hill-1100+700
MGM-1200+700

Looking ahead, here’s the schedule:

  • Game 5 at Los Angeles: Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET
  • Game 6 at Boston: Tuesday, 8:09 p.m. ET (if necessary)
  • Game 7 at Boston: Wednesday, 8:09 p.m. ET (if necessary)

Game 5 lines

While the Dodgers hoped for anniversary magic to lead to a long-starved-for World Series title, it’s another landmark year that comes to the forefront.

The last time Los Angeles lost back-to-back Series, Tommy John was dealing for the Dodgers, and Steve Garvey and Davey Lopes anchored the right side of the infield. One loss to Boston, in any of the remaining three games, would deal LA its first back-to-back Series losses since 1977 and 1978. On top of that, the Dodgers would become the first team to lose consecutive World Series at home since the New York Giants in 1936 and 1937.

SportsbookMoneylineSpreadOver/Under
*Multiple lines offered
DraftKingsBOS +123/LA -139BOS +1.5 (-190)/LA -1.5 (+155)7.5 (-103/-118)
BetStarsBOS +130/LA -150BOS +1.5 (-182)/LA -1.5 (+150)7.5 (-110/-110)
FanDuelBOS +134/LA -150BOS +1.5 (-170)/LA -1.5 (+150)7.5 (-104/-112)
SugarHouseBOS +123/LA -139BOS +1.5 (-190)/LA -1.5 (+155)*7.5 (-103/-118)*
888sportBOS +120/LA -143BOS +1 (-129)/LA -1 (+106)*7.5 (-104/-118)*
CaesarsBOS +132/LA -142BOS +1.5 (-170)/LA -1.5 (+150)7.5 (-105/-115)
William HillBOS +132/LA -142BOS +1.5 (-170)/LA -1.5 (+150)7.5 (-110/-110)
MGMBOS +131/LA -141BOS +1.5 (-170)/LA -1.5 (+150)7.5 (-110/-110)

MVP props, props, propspropsprops

Rather than examining the most intriguing wagers at various NJ sportsbooks, it’s most likely time to begin assessing proper Series MVP candidates.

Fortunately, there are lines for that.

Start with Boston’s latest in a long line of postseason heroes.

Pearce, one of just six players in MLB history to play for every team in the same division, joined Carl Yastrzemski (1967) and David Ortiz (2004) as the only Sox players to homer and drive in four runs in a World Series game.

Those kinds of heroics hold a lot of weight, especially considering he has batted a decent .250 with no strikeouts and four walks. That, and his five RBIs lead all players this series. BetStars lists Pearce’s MVP odds at 14/1, while FanDuel Sportsbook pays +1300. Pretty good for a guy who’s changed teams nine times since 2007.

Yet Pearce sits behind four teammates in the odds column:

  • JD Martinez, batting .214 with four RBIs: 5/2 by BetStars, +240 by FanDuel
  • Mookie Betts, batting .211: 3/1 by BetStars, +340 by FanDuel
  • Andrew Benintendi, batting .357: 7/2 by BetStars, +375 by FanDuel
  • Xander Bogaerts, batting .105: 9/1 by BetStars, +1000 by FanDuel

For those still holding out hope for the Dodgers, keep holding on. The odds of completing a comeback rise dramatically with each win. Of the 17 teams winning Game 5, eight forced a Game 7. And in that deciding game, six teams clinched the title.

So, for those holding out hope, consider LA’s top three MVP candidates. Yasiel Puig, batting .235 with four RBIs and a home run, is listed at 18/1 at BetStars and +2000 at FanDuel. Teammates Justin Turner (a Series-best .381 average) and Manny Machado (.222 with three RBIS) both feature +2500 payouts at FanDuel.

NFL Week 9 Look-Ahead Lines And Betting Market Moves For Week 8

FairwayJay October 28, 2018
NFL Look Ahead Week 8

The Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas has released the NFL look-ahead lines for Week 9, and there will be some marquee match-ups to look forward to with Pittsburgh at Baltimore, LA Rams at New Orleans, and Green Bay at New England on Sunday night.

However, as we approach the halfway point of the NFL season in Week 8, three AFC preseason favorites are leading their divisions with New England (5-2), Pittsburgh (3-2-1) and Kansas City (6-1) on top, while Jacksonville (3-4) is one game behind AFC South leader Houston (5-3). The stronger NFC also has three preseason conference favorites leading their divisions with the LA Rams (7-0), New Orleans (5-1) and Minnesota (4-2-1) on top while Washington (4-2) is the surprise in the NFC East with defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia (3-4) playing catchup.

You’ll pay a little price to bet on many of these division leaders in the second half of the season, and you’ll see that in the weekly market moves and lookahead lines.

Adjusting to market moves

The tendency of many bettors is to over (or under) react to games and events they saw most recently. That’s especially true on the nationally televised primetime games on Thursday, Sunday and Monday night. As scoring continues at a record pace while averaging more than 48 points per game, the high-powered offenses will also influence the betting lines and totals, which are also being set by the linemaker at record highs.

While it’s essential to make adjustments in your handicapping and sports betting approach based on information such as impactful injuries, statistical profiles, player performance and personnel changes, and scheduling situations, it’s also important to understand a bookmaker’s approach to setting the lines and its understanding of how bettors react to recent results.

If you followed and bet on the biggest adjusted market moves of at least two points last week, you went 2-4 ATS. So while recent results, injuries and public perception have impacted these games more than others from an adjusted line standpoint, it’s worth noting that the potential overreaction to last week’s results and the adjusted price is not always a profitable play towards the team with the bigger adjusted line moves.

Also note that home underdogs were buried last week, going 1-5 SU/ATS after going 20-10 ATS through the first six weeks.

Week 8 look-ahead lines and major moves

For the Week 8 games on Sunday, Oct. 28, these are the games where there was at least a two-point difference from the look-ahead line in Las Vegas and current line:

  • Philadelphia vs Jacksonville (PK) – Current line Eagles -3
  • New York Jets at Chicago (-5) – Current line Bears -7
  • Washington at New York Giants (-1) – Current line Redskins -1
  • Baltimore at Carolina (PK) – Current line Ravens -2
  • Indianapolis at Oakland (-1) – Current line Colts -3
  • San Francisco at Arizona (-2) – Current line 49ers PK
  • New Orleans at Minnesota (-3) – Current line Vikings -1
  • New England (-10.5) at Buffalo – Current line Patriots -14

The worst teams in the league have clearly been identified, and the linemaker understands this knowing bigger line adjustments often need to be made as most bettors will not be putting their money on these losers – Bills (2-5), Cardinals (1-6), Raiders (1-6) and Giants (1-6). Oakland and New York also trading away players as the trading deadline approaches Oct. 30, and the white flag is raised in rebuilding mode. The stats also suggest these teams are going to struggle most weeks, as Buffalo (11.6), Arizona (13.1) Oakland (18.3) and New York (19.6) are all averaging less than 20 points per game, and the Cardinals (220 yards per game) and Bills (234 YPG) offenses are completely dreadful in a year when offenses and scoring are producing records. The last two years, the worst offenses in the league averaged 280 YPG and 262 YPG.

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NFL Week 9 look-ahead betting lines

  • Oakland at San Francisco (-2.5) – Thursday Night
  • Chicago at Buffalo (OFF)
  • Tampa Bay at Carolina (-4.5)
  • Kansas City (-7) at Cleveland
  • New York Jets at Miami (OFF)
  • Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-3)
  • Detroit at Minnesota (-6.5)
  • Atlanta at Washington  (-1)
  • Houston (-1.5) at Denver
  • Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle (PK)
  • Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans (PK)
  • Green Bay at New England (-7.5) – Sunday Night
  • Tennessee at Dallas (-4) – Monday Night

NFL Week 8 Lines And NJ Betting Guide

Marco Cerino October 28, 2018
NFL Week 8

Week 8 of the NFL season is on the horizon and even with four teams on bye, the schedule is LOADED! Marquee matchups are across the board all day Sunday. In this article we take a first look at the spreads and totals listed at all of the legal sites in New Jersey. Be sure to check in all week for updated lines and analysis from our friends at PlayPicks.com.

(Odds updated 10/24/18)

 DraftKingsFanDuelSugarHouseBetStars888sportMGMCaesarsWill Hill
Miami
Houston
44
-7.5
44
-7.5
44
-7.5
44
-7
44
-7.5
44
-7.5
44.5
-7.5
44.5
-7.5
Philadelphia
Jacksonville
-3.5
42
-3
42
-3.5
42
-3
42
-3.5
42
-3
42
-3
42
-3
41.5
Baltimore
Carolina
-2
43.5
-2
44
-2
43.5
-2
44
-2
43.5
-2
44
-1.5
44
-1.5
43.5
Cleveland
Pittsburgh
50.5
-8
51
-8
50.5
-8
50.5
-8
50.5
-8
51
-8
50.5
-8
51
-8
Denver
Kansas City
54.5
-10
53.5
-10
54.5
-10
54
-10
54.5
-10
55
-10
53.5
-10
54.5
-10
NY Jets
Chicago
45.5
-7.5
45.5
-7
45.5
-7.5
45
-7
45.5
-7.5
45.5
-7
45
-7
45
-7
Seattle
Detroit
49.5
-3.5
49.5
-3
49.5
-3.5
49.5
-3
49.5
-3.5
49.5
-3
49.5
-3
49.5
-3
Tampa Bay
Cincinnati
54
-4
54.5
-4
54
-4
54
-4.5
54
-4
54
-4.5
54
-5
54.5
-5
Washington
NY Giants
42
PK
-1
43
42
PK
42.5
PK
42
PK
42
PK
42.5
PK
-1
42
Indianapolis
Oakland
-3
50
-3
50
-3
50
-3
49.5
-3
50
-3
49.5
-3
50
-3
50
Green Bay
LA Rams
56.5
-9.5
56.5
-9.5
56.5
-9.5
56.5
-9.5
56.5
-9.5
56.5
-9
56.5
-9
56.5
-9.5
SF 49ers
Arizona
42.5
-1
43
-1
42.5
-1
42.5
PK
43
PK
43
PK
-1
43
-1
PK
NO Saints
Minnesota
52
PK
-1
51.5
52
PK
52
PK
52.5
-1
52
PK
52.5
-1
52
PK
New England
Buffalo
-13.5
44
-13.5
44
-13.5
44
-14
44
-14
44.5
-14
44
-14
44.5
-14
44

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Week 8 betting breakdown

Dolphins at Texans (-7.5): Expect to see Brock Osweiler again on the short week as Ryan Tannehill remains doubtful for the Dolphins. The Texans opened with a half-point extra value at 888Sport while the under (45) got half-point at FanDuel.

Eagles (-3) vs. Jaguars: Both teams travel across the pond to London with their promising seasons in flux. It looks like Bortles will start, so this line will likely stay near a field goal until kickoff.

Jets at Bears (-7): Intriguing match-up between two young QBs with potent offenses. Recency bias favors the hot home team who gave a good effort against the Pats last week.

Seahawks at Lions (-3): The Seahawks have won 4 of the last 5 in this meeting, but the home is favored by a field goal team at most books. Bettors could find some value on a key number at BetStars and FanDuel as of Monday.

Broncos at Chiefs (-9): FanDuel had the first price on this game, a rematch of the Monday Night thriller earlier this year. All of the books listed it at KC -10 as of Wednesday. KC going for seven wins in a row against its division rival, which could factor into this large number.

Buccaneers at Bengals (-4.5): Despite getting thumped Sunday night at Arrowhead Stadium, the Bengals opened as a sizeable favorite  (-6) at home. The number dropped to -4.5 at several books on Wednesday. Bengals QB Andy Dalton enters 4-1-1 against the NFC South, including a 14-13 win in Tampa in 2014. FanDuel was the only book offering this game on Monday morning.

Browns at Steelers (-8): Pittsburgh enters off the bye with momentum. Cleveland looks for its first win in Pittsburgh since 2003. Watch for the total to move.

Redskins (-1) at Giants: This screams regional bias. Watch for the line to move following the Monday night game the Giants play in Atlanta. Eli Manning does enter the game 18-9 against Washington, his best record against an NFC East foe.

Ravens (-1.5) at Panthers: The books give the visitors the edge despite their narrow loss at home in Week 7. This will be Carolina’s first home game as an underdog despite being 3-0 in Charlotte.

Colts (-3) at Raiders: This may be the most disagreement at week’s start we’ve seen all season on a spread. FanDuel listed this a pick’em on Monday, while William Hill favored the Colts by a point, and the line moved quickly after news of the Raiders trading Amari Cooper. Andrew Luck has split two starts against the Raiders, losing in Oakland in 2016.

Packers at Rams (-9.5): Aaron Rodgers has never been this big an underdog as a starter before. He and the Pack were getting 8.5 at BetStars on Monday, but the line keeps inching toward the Rams.

49ers at Cardinals (-1): Interesting to see Arizona favored at home after Denver blasted them in Glendale and knocked QB Josh Rosen out of the game. The Cardinals get the recency bias as they look for eight in a row against the Niners, following the 28-18 win at Levi’s Stadium earlier this month.

Saints at Vikings (PK): Remember the old days (well, like 10-20 years ago) when the Sunday night game got moved to Thursdays so the NFL wouldn’t go heads-up against the World Series? How things have changed. The NFC Divisional rematch may draw some viewers from baseball.

Patriots (-14) at Buffalo: Tom Brady enters 28-3 against the Bills in his career. The Bills are coming off another embarassing loss, which is surely playing into this massive number for the Patriots.